Weekly Macro Note: Kharg Island Oil Risks, Employment Week Ahead, Portfolio Strategy Update, & More

In this Weekly Macro Note - we discuss the latest oil risks as the war continues on - with new infrastructure targeted, we highlight developments on the employment front, & update portfolio strategy

Don Johnson (@DonMiami3), Chief Economist

Good Sunday evening MacroEdge Readers & Community,

This evening we’ve seen little sign of any move towards a ceasefire or conflict de-escalation. We know that Iran was planning on responding to the list of 15 items by last Friday or today, and now it is Monday time in that part of the world. Attacks on infrastructure both ways continued through Sunday, and Iran may be shifting their strategy towards attacking during market hours as opposed to the ‘weekend wars’ we saw in 2025, where attacks only occurred outside of futures trading… We’re also noting that what we saw last year was nothing like the magnitude we’re seeing today in terms of an energy shock that’s still working its way through the pipeline.

Looking at futures right now (as of about 8pm ET) we’ve got the NQ down about 1%, and small caps leading the fall, the gap above is probably something that gets filled at some point on either a TACO or signs of progress toward a ceasefire, though that is looking less likely right now given everything we’ve seen this weekend. Iran hit a desalination water plant in Kuwait as retaliation, and critical infrastructure attacks could quickly spur higher energy prices as more risk gets priced into markets globally. This is the week we’ve highlighted that could be where we start to see fuel shortages hit the East Asian countries more broadly, and over the weekend - we’ve even seen countries like Ethiopia announce fuel rationing programs and a limitation of driving to only ‘essential workers’... whatever that term means, it gives me flashbacks to the early 2020 days, and I certainly am no fan of that. Because of the major implications on the energy markets, and the coverage we’ve provided on them for now over a month (going back to the third/fourth week of February, if you recall) - that and the war will continue to be the primary focus of our Macro Notes series for the time being - especially with oil prices in the driver’s seat of the global macro picture (and of equity markets, too).

[Update: Trump is posting on Truth Social as of 8:21 that Iran has given the US 20 large oil boats that will pass through the Strait of Hormuz - and the gap highlighted above was filled]... How’s that for high-frequency information…? It just keeps on coming nonstop.]

…turns out the news is false, it was the 20 Pakistani-flagged vessels, 2 per day for 10 days, old news:

This market is very unhealthy if it only bounces when there is a Truth Social.

As for the likelihood for a broader bounce in markets - since everyone is so obsessed with the high-frequency right now - that happens in almost every instance we see the indices move sharply lower than the 200dma. In this case, who knows what will spur that rally - it could be a number of things, like a short-term ceasefire if they really lose control of oil prices.

This evening we’ll be covering The Macro Club, and have an update on our rollout in a Wednesday evening update (going to be an incredible group), look at the employment week ahead, discuss a quick energy update on the latest data and prices - as well as strategy, look at the technicals in the major indices [Global Bubble Indices update in the Midweek], and discuss the 200dma ‘magnet’ that was highlighted above.

The Macro Club

On Wednesday, we’ll have a full outline and overview of The Macro Club, which we are launching in late June 2026.

We’re building The Macro Club to eliminate the barrier of unified intelligence that exists in today’s financial services industry. By combining thought leaders in our community, the MacroEdge team, serious investors, money managers & financial professionals, financial authors on platforms like Substack, and business executives, we’re creating unified brainpower and a community around it.

In late June 2026, we will be introducing The Macro Club - a social and professional club designed to enhance the MacroEdge experience and build an intelligence community from the ground up. While Substack and X have been great building blocks, we’re looking to do something more in community building and build something that enables our readers and community members to build relationships with our professionals in the space and connect in a more streamlined way with members of our team. Think of it as an event (in-person and virtual), intelligence, data, portfolio strategy, discussion, and social hub all in one place - that’s The Macro Club.

Why join The Macro Club?

Membership by application only. All applicants will have a 10 to 15-minute phone call with a member of our team.

Employment Week Ahead

Job cuts tracked by MacroEdge are set to end the month of March over 100K - another elevated month driven by shedding in technology. I expect that cuts remain elevated with the war, and the oil/energy shock may lead to further layoffs as prices begin to accelerate.

Indeed Job Postings are also declining again, and serve as a leading indicator for JOLTS:

March was likely a soft month - especially toward the second half - and I think the price shock will likely have a major dampening effect on hiring in April data.

Quick Energy Update & Energy Portfolio Strategy Update

This week, we will likely be doing some re-torquing of the energy portfolio. With WTI as high as it is, we want to reduce hedge drag by as much as possible in the strategy, and that will mean a few updates… We are looking to focus on Permian & Bakken pureplay exposure - as they should benefit greatly from this crisis - and the core names in our basket are already very strong (ie: HPK). Natural gas exposure may benefit from the Strait closure as well, with E&P names that operate in that space…

With no changes made yet, with it still being the Sunday evening hours, stay tuned for a special update on this front… As we shift into The Macro Club and Economic Advisory components for strategy updates and notes - that is where you will find them in the future (if you’re already an Ozone member, you will be grandfathered in…).

The technical structures for WTI continue to look very constructive for higher levels:

A Look at the Technicals

Monthly technicals are starting to break down on the technology sector (QQQ):

(continued below: ‘A Look at the Technicals’, the 200DMA magnet, coverage schedule this week, portfolio strategy update & commentary - Six)