Weekly Macro Note: In Standby Mode, Vision Note, Gold Discussion

In this weekly macro note - the team dives into the rally materializing in equities & crypto, discusses gold, the next opportunities, macro, and more.

In Standby Mode (@DonMiami3, MacroEdge Chief Economist)

Good evening MacroEdge Readers & Community,

This evening I’m providing my weekly note & update from high in the sky - on my way back home from a short weekend. Was nice to escape but as things go with travel & such, today ended up being much longer than expected after the morning flight back was cancelled. Turning to the futures open - expectations were way too tilted going in and have now been dialed back a bit after Lutnick/Trump comments today about semiconductor tariffs - but the week looks to be starting on another fairly positive note for the rally/bounce team. There seems to be a growing rift within the Trump camp of pro-tariff versus non - and Wall St and other banking industry leaders have thrown their weight behind the latter. This holiday week and largely through the second half - until the last week of April - I expect things to be quieter as volume abates from the crazy moves of the last eight weeks. Volatility remains too high for my taste, although the Yen continues to flex its muscle in the overnight hours. Won’t keep it long this evening and let’s dive into our weekly discussion:

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Macro Data This Week

Monday: Fed speaker galore

Tuesday: Import & Export Prices, Japanese Tankan Data

Wednesday: Retail Sales, Manufacturing data, Foreign Bond Investment, Japanese Import/Export Data

Thursday: Philly Fed data, Japanese Inflation Rate(s)

Friday: Holiday

Pretty quiet week and look for signs of broader macro cooling that have not yet materialized - especially in retail sales. Inflation read for Japan is important here and shouldn’t be overlooked given the strength of the yen of late. The Trump Admin officials have been quick to dismiss bond and dollar index concerns which means we should probably be on high alert here…