Weekly Macro Note: CPI/PPI Preview, Housing Data Review, Portfolio Strategy Update & New Opportunities - South America, Geopol Volatility, & More

In this Weekly Macro Note - we cover our CPI/PPI preview for the week, talk about the latest batch of housing data & continued housing recession, and Six updates our portfolio strategy & more.

Don Johnson (@DonMiami3), Chief Economist

Good Sunday evening MacroEdge Readers and Community,

This evening, we’re diving into all things macro & Six is providing a portfolio strategy update/commentary for the month January, for MacroEdge Ozone Pro readers.

This week is somewhat busy for the ‘macro watchers’ from a data standpoint - with CPI coming into view. This is really the hail mary item for those betting on any chance of a rate cut this month - and we’re coming out of a flawed print dropped last month that was compiled after the government shutdown. We’ll also get PPI data as well. The government last week announced it was shifting/delaying some data until February 20th - so the data environment continues to be a very mixed picture.

In the past week, we’ve started to see housing data trickle out that was held back from the shutdown. The housing market has been in recession for several years, and that continues to be reflected in the performance of homebuilder equities. The announcement of an intervention in the MBS market to lower spreads sparked a rally in builders over the past week, with Fanny & Freddie set to purchase $200 billion of mortgage backed securities. If yields move higher, this is going to be a very short-term, and very flawed solution. The housing market, living and dying on bailouts & interventions since 2008, continues to be the general theme, and the 2020-2022-era resulted in a decades-long distortion (along with things like mass migration) that has turned the housing market into a bizarre Frankenstein market with record-low first-time buying readings. The luxury market continues to chug along, as one would expect in a pro-asset regime, but activity itself is still very suppressed. The following week (1/21 and 1/22 sees a lot of additional housing data) that one should keep an eye on for further direction with homebuilder equities.

Additionally, in tonight’s Weekly Macro Note - we’ll briefly discuss the geopolitical volatility we’re seeing, with things like Greenland and Iran, highlight the balance sheet expansion, and talk about shifts in Trump Administration policy with the midterm coming up (calling for things like interest rate caps on credit cards).

Six will discuss updates and add commentary to our portfolio strategy - and highlight new opportunities and shifts in our strategy.

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Macro Data Ahead

• Monday: Nothing particularly important, but NY Fed President Williams speaks

• Tuesday: CPI

• Wednesday: Retail Sales, PPI

• Thursday: Empire State / Philly Fed indicators, Japan PPI

• Friday: Fed Jefferson speaks

CPI/ PPI Preview

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