Weekly Macro Note & February RESights Report: K'2'eeping it Simple, Florida Housing Market Review

In this Weekly Macro Note for Ozone we discuss the latest risks for the week ahead in the 'Trump Risk Matrix', the Yen/USD relationship, Florida housing situation, sentiment, and more.

Critical Points Discussed 

• Market Drivers & Yen's Influence on Tech – The USD/JPY pair continues to be a key driver of U.S. tech stocks, with a weaker yen boosting the Nasdaq and a stronger yen pulling it lower. A potential hawkish stance from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could strengthen the yen, impacting U.S. markets.

• Employment & Labor Market Risks – February employment data is showing signs of cooling, with job postings rolling back to cycle lows and layoffs increasing. Payroll growth is slowing, and continued weakness could lead to a higher U3 unemployment rate.

• Florida Housing Market Slowdown – Florida's housing market is cooling faster than other states, with inventory levels reaching their highest since 2012. Transaction volumes are low, and pricing data is distorted, signaling potential challenges for sellers.

• Market Sentiment & Broader Economic Trends – Investor sentiment remains volatile, flipping rapidly between extreme bearish and bullish outlooks. Retail investors continue chasing speculative gains, reflecting broader instability in market behavior. Inflation concerns persist, especially if rents or housing prices reaccelerate.

K'2'eeping it Simple, Florida Housing Market Review - February - Don Johnson (@DonMiami3), Chief Economist

(The 2 in the title is silent, for good measure…) 

Good Sunday evening MacroEdge Readers and Community, 

This evening we’ll cover a variety of topics from the Trump Risk Matrix - including the yen, yields, and earnings this week, to the Florida real estate situation, and more. While those who follow me on X have likely seen my strongly critical views on the appalling crypto pump & dump today directly out of the White House - I won’t waste any of our time in this report covering it. Long story short, somebody knew & David Sacks just so happens to have wild conflicts of interest with the 5 coins magically selected by Trump to be ‘strategic’ - interesting? Maybe for those who haven’t been paying attention to expanding corruption that’s been going on in DC since at least 2005, on magnitudes this large. There’s plenty of interesting data this week, with the below being of the greatest importance (in my opinion): 

• Tariff Comments (keep an eye on them) 

• Uchida Comments (Bank of Japan Policy Action) 

• ISM Data (Manufacturing bounce real or tariff induced?)

• Employment Risk (data on Wed-Friday) 

• Weaker DXY / Stronger Yen (USD/JPY pair) 

• AVGO/COST Earnings

We’ll have the next Vision update in the next day or two - in the Midweek Macro Note - as we get more incoming data this week, from Six. Access through Ozone below for two weeks:

Or thru Substack: