Weekly Macro Note 3/23: End of Quarter Discussion, Macro, Short Term Technicals, Japan Focus Continues, Copper, and More

In this Weekly Macro Note - we discuss the macro picture to end Q1, the short term technicals, continued weakness in technicals and internals, our focus on Japan, copper (Dr. Copper), and more.

End of Quarter Discussion: Macro, Short Term Technicals, Japan Focus Continues, & More (@DonMiami3, MacroEdge Chief Economist)

Good Sunday evening MacroEdge Readers and Community, 

This Sunday evening, we'll take a quick dive into the macro data for the week ahead, share my thoughts on the technicals and price action on a shorter-term basis, and discuss how I expect things to evolve through the end of the month. In just two weeks, we’ll learn a lot more about the reciprocal tariffs (April 2nd), which some outlets like Bloomberg Econ have begun to quantify, the NFP report, and CPI this week. We do know that Trump is already narrowing the industries impacted by the tariffs and focusing on the so-called 'Dirty 15' nations with large trade imbalances with the United States... yes, those still matter. By and large, tech stocks continue to move in near-lockstep with movements in the USD/JPY—so keep an eye on that correlation, as well as for data out of Japan. Futures this evening are up about .7% (for tech) showing some positive momentum from the close on Friday - and excitement about a slightly weaker yen and watered-down tariffs. 

Trump & Co have likely spooked themselves behind the scenes regarding the tariffs, but I think the move in the market to break the nearly 2-year 'blowoff' trend has other elements behind it. I do think whatever tariffs we end up getting will be considerably watered down, as Trump won't want to self-indict on economic weakness (the guy was again promoting his own cryptocurrency today). Whether or not a clear catalyst has been seen yet remains to be determined.

On Friday evening, we discussed in a 'Short Run Through Kyoto' a whole lot from a technical/internal standpoint, and you can read that below if you have not yet done so:

Macro Data This Week (What Matters) 

Monday:

> March 27th - April 2nd NY Fed Repo SRF (Standing Repo Facility) - $500bn

> Chicago Fed National Activity Index 

> S&P Global USA Composite 

> BoJ Minutes

Tuesday: 

> CB Consumer Confidence (March) 

> New Home Sales 

> Richmond Fed Macro Data

> Building Permits 

Wednesday: 

> Durable Goods 

Thursday: 

> GDP Growth Rate 

> Claims 

> PCE Prices 

> Kansas Fed Composite 

> Tokyo Core CPI / CPI 

Friday: 

> Income/Spending YoY 

> UMich Consumer Sentimentnt 

Yen Correlation