Saturday Macro Note: The 'Strait' Truth, Weekend Warfare Circus, & 'On the Ground' Series Starting Soon

In this Saturday Macro Note - we discuss the latest geopolitical developments, and their potential impact on global energy markets and supply chains, and talk about our new 'On the Ground' series.

Good Saturday evening MacroEdge Readers & Community,

Hopefully you have had a nice start to the weekend. This will be a brief Saturday Macro Note - since we’ve got a packed Weekly Macro Note arriving tomorrow evening.

This evening - we’re covering our ‘On the Ground’ series that kicks off this week - with background to the research we will be engaging in to cover the latest trends in the agricultural sector - focusing particularly on fertilizer costs, corn, and wheat. In two weekends, we will be embarking on a data collection trip in the Texas Panhandle, covering these key areas within ag.The goal is to collect data, discuss what/if the data is relevant, and ask more questions. This will allow us to determine if there is a broader opportunity in the sector, and a thematic portfolio strategy can be spooled up, backed up by our findings. While data on FRED and elsewhere is somewhat useful, when it comes to sectors like this that remain largely off the radar, there is no better way to find out the reality than to discover it first hand. We’ll meet with farmers, equipment suppliers, and more to find out the truth - from the ground… so welcome to ‘On the Ground’ and I hope you find this new series useful for your own decision making.

In brief update below - you’ll get a brief of the ‘On the Ground’ series that is kicking off as we dive into the back story of the ag sector - and especially in the areas we’re focusing on. Why should we care, even if we’re in an era of ‘nothing matters anymore’?... Well, the data we collect will explain the ‘why’.

On the war front, the IRGC (Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps) appears to be playing good cop - bad cop with the diplomats in a guns v suits scenario. While Friday, we saw a bizarre pivot from diplomatic leaders, this was quickly shutdown by the military leaders as Trump announced that he would not be lifting the blockade on Iranian ports. Today, several boats were targeted by IRGC boats - and a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz is once again in effect. All boats in the Persian Gulf were ordered to drop anchor, and seize movement, and ship traffic will dip to near zero tomorrow - as Iranian tankers, shadow fleet boats, and GCC boats are not expected to move tomorrow. This case of escalation will likely require another rung higher from the US/Israel/GCC side - and it remains to be seen what that might be. It continues to look like we’re trending toward the direction of a resumption of conflict if diplomacy fails this week. That does not mean that we’re not going to have relentless fake headlines from ‘sources’ and a full out global government assault on oil prices (to combat demand destruction and inflation) - but the Strait closing again should be positive for oil prices. While front-month futures got taken to the woodshed yesterday, in the weekend CFDs market in Singapore - they have mostly erased the entire Friday selloff - which would imply a WTI price of about $90/bbl - more than a 10% move from the lows after the tweets and Truth posts yesterday morning. Oil volatility itself actually feel sharply last week - and if things go ‘hot’ in the next two to three weeks - I expect that we will see another ramp on that front. This price action is really not helpful for oil and gas firms themselves, but it’s part of navigating any war… hence ‘the fog’...

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In June - we’ll be unveiling Portfolio Strategy, The Macro Club, and we’re partnering with TREX Energy to empower smarter decision making within the oil and gas sector… Stay tuned for more!

Weekly Macro Note Preview:

• Futures Open / Week Ahead

• Early Inflation Warning Signals

• Technicals Overview

• The Energy Reality and Our Outlook, NatGas Dead?

• Portfolio Strategy Note & Commentary

• Weekly Report Schedule

Our ‘On the Ground’ ‘Series - A New Beginning for MacroEdge Ozone - A Reimagination of How We Collect Data

I am very pleased to announce the introduction of our ‘On the Ground’ series that will launch this week. In the upcoming week we provide the launchpad for our Agriculture series that will continue through May in multiple parts. The goal of our ‘On the Ground’ series is to build on how we collect data… While we’ve done a lot of research trips (ie: our trip to the Permian Basin as early signs of a potential war loomed) and much more - this is going to formalize the process and add surgical precision to how we translate and filter through anecdotes, and turn them into portfolio strategy.

While this will inevitably feed into what our Portfolio Strategy team utilizes come June when they launch and turn our data into direct strategy, all under one roof.

In two weekends, I will be embarking on another journey to the skies and beyond, as I head to Amarillo, TX with Six to collect the data for the agriculture series. We’re looking at corn, wheat, fertilizer, and more to collect, compile, report on, and construct strategy relevant to our findings. If there’s nothing of huge interest, we’ll outline that case too, but as the Strait remains closed

The ‘Strait’ Truth - Weekend Warfare Circus

As of Saturday night local time, the IRGC Navy (Sepah Navy) has declared the Strait of Hormuz totally closed until the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports is lifted. Iran reversed its brief Friday reopening (which was based on a Lebanon ceasefire) because the U.S. “pressed ahead” with the blockade. The IRGC warned that “no vessel should make any movement” and approaching the Strait will be considered “cooperation with the enemy” and targeted. Firing has already occurred: IRGC gunboats fired on a tanker, and a container vessel was hit by an unknown projectile. India has summoned the Iranian ambassador over firing on two India-flagged ships.

(Continued below -'The ‘Strait’ Truth - Weekend Warfare Circus - discussing the impact of the re-closure of the Strait, possible negotiations this week, a look at both sides of the coin with the conflict (war v peace), and what’s likely to happen next)…