Saturday Macro Note: The Latest on Data Centers - Preview, a Silver State Struggle Continues, New Fed Chair, Bank Failure
In this brief Satuday Macro Note - we lay the ground work for our significant Weekly Macro Note - covering the latest in our employment and AI data series releases, talk about the bank failure, & more
Don Johnson (@DonMiami3), Chief Economist
Good Saturday evening MacroEdge readers and community,
While I am writing this as a report for an evening release, it is currently very early on Saturday morning before I land in Europe. I will be transitioning to GMT+1 time zone this week with our sales team as we attend a major industry conference. These unique in-person experiences allow us to build on our existing customer network and base for MacroEdge Transform - and drive forward results for years to come, for both new and existing relationships. One of our priorities for the year, outside of major growth in our Macro Research segments, is to push it to the limit for the Macro Research & Transform categories.
As such, it’s already shaping up to be a very busy, complex, and exciting year, and I am excited to continue sharing all things MacroEdge as we continue to grow this year, with more on the way throughout the year as things progress. Stay tuned for continued updates on our product announcement, and I look forward to continuing to share all of the things we’re developing as we expand this year and beyond. Tonight’s update is going to be quite brief - given how late we are in the day, and due to my need to catch-up on the time zone change.
Feel the need to Subscribe to MacroEdge Ozone? You can do so below, and I look forward to having you join our network - now powered solely through the Substack ecosystem.
In tonight’s concise Saturday Macro Note, we’ll cover the latest data center statistics (and expand on this in part 2), discuss ongoing challenges in the sector, including another rise in postponements and cancellations for January, point out the softness in Nevada’s cyclical state economy, and provide our employment forecast for January. With the global equity bubble continuing to push towards new heights, consumer sentiment remains sharply mixed - with wage and non-asset class members remaining very sour on their current and future economic prospects, while the asset class (about 5-10% of the aggregate population in % terms) continues to see an expansion in the value of their assets. This weekend, cryptocurrency has moved lower after a major move last Friday in metals, where we saw silver suffer its largest single day loss since 1921. Trump also announced the appointment of a new Fed chair, which may or may not get approved by the Senate, and yet another government shutdown will begin, excluding the key budget items for DHS that both parties are trying to come to an… ‘agreement’ on.
The Latest on Data Centers - Preview
Data center cancellations and postponements continue to trend higher, hitting a new series high for our data in January, and now sparking fear among some local politicians that their massive push over the past two years may be coming to an end. While this has been a tailwind for the entire AI theme and for things like construction employment, we tracked over three dozen new postponements and cancellations for the month. Tomorrow, we’ll review the release of our new data - and the 37 data center announcements we tracked in January, available for Ozone readers & subscribers.
A Silver State Struggle Continues
Nevada’s economy is currently struggling with a cooling labor market that outpaces the national average. While the U.S. unemployment rate sits at approximately 4.4%, Nevada’s rate remains elevated at 5.2%. This divergence is driven primarily by a slowdown in the leisure and hospitality sector, which is seeing a sharp decline in visitor volume as consumers pull back on discretionary spending. On top of that, construction spending has rolled over sharply, which has contributed to a decline in construction employment in the state. Is the boom & bust state signaling something to us again, or is it yet again more macro noise in a deeply compromised data environment?
Employment Preview for January
January is shaping up to be another soft employment month in the US. While migration is way off the Biden-era days, there are many factors at play here.
Job cuts month-to-date have registered again at over 100,000 - and things like Indeed Job postings (another live data series) are not improving, though they have stopped their sharp pace of decline we saw through much of 2025. With rate cuts now on pause, and likely to be for at least a few months, it’s important to continue watching these cyclical gauges for more signal.
In the Weekly Macro Note tomorrow, we’ll cover:
Data Center Deep Dive, Part 2
Macro Week Ahead
Crypto Shoes Signs of Cracking
A Deep Dive Into Energy Opportunities
Air Travels Troubles Continued, Part 2
Portfolio Strategy & Commentary Update
Weekly Schedule for Reports
And much more…
Bank Failure Friday First of 2026: Metropolitan Capital Bank Chicago, IL (@RealJohnGaltFla, MacroEdge Contributor)
I guess while the regulators are still working a few brave souls are going to enforce what little bit of the banking laws remain. Friday night, a decent sized institution with assets of $261.1 million was seized by the FDIC and the operations plus remaining deposits assumed by a bank out of Detroit.
Full details below in the FDIC Press release:
WASHINGTON — Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust was closed today by the Illinois Department of Financial and Professional Regulation, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. The FDIC entered into a purchase and assumption agreement with First Independence Bank to assume substantially all deposits of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust.
Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust’s sole office will reopen as a branch of First Independence Bank during its normal business hours on Monday, February 2, 2026. Depositors of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust will automatically become depositors of First Independence Bank. The deposits assumed by First Independence Bank will continue to be insured by the FDIC, so there is no need for customers to change their banking relationship.
Customers of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust will have immediate access to their deposits. Over the weekend, they can access their deposits by writing checks or using ATM or debit cards. Checks drawn on the bank will continue to be processed. Loan customers should continue to make their payments as usual.
Customers with questions should contact the FDIC toll-free at 1-866-314-1744 or visit the FDIC’s website. This phone number will be operational this evening until 9:00 p.m., Central Time (CT); on Saturday from 9:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m., CT; on Sunday from noon to 6:00 p.m., CT; Monday from 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m., CT; and thereafter from 9:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m., CT.
As of September 30, 2025, Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust reported total assets of $261.1 million and total deposits of $212.1 million. First Independence Bank agreed to assume substantially all deposits at the time of closing. It will also purchase approximately $251 million of the failed bank’s assets. The FDIC will retain the remaining assets for later disposition.
The FDIC preliminarily estimates that the failure will cost its Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) about $19.7 million. The estimate will change over time as retained assets are sold.
Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust is the first bank to fail in the nation this year.
Could this be the year of enforcement against financial malfeasance or just another one off small community bank that gambled on bad CRE? I’m sure the story will be out soon enough.
Stay tuned.
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