Saturday Macro Note: March Employment Recap, War Updates, Oil and Food Price Relationship, Crypto Note
In this brief Saturday Macro Note - we discuss the latest mixed data from another BLS employment report, highlight the latest war update, talk about food price impacts from oil spikes, and more.
Don Johnson (@DonMiami3), Chief Economist
In this brief Saturday Macro Note, we’re going to take a look at the latest in the employment data, with the March employment release now fully behind us. Interestingly enough, the report came on a day where markets were closed and only had a brief chance to react to the report. The report was mixed at best and mostly soft across the board. As highlighted in a post I made on X (and have made the same post many times in the last several years), the bulk of net workforce growth is all coming from foreign born labor which is the demographic reality of our domestic labor market being as old as it is. The report will likely see substantial revisions over the next 2 months, and February saw significant negative revisions (yet another month following a pattern of huge revisions).
We will also briefly highlight the latest war updates of the day below - of which there have been several - discuss and analyze the oil and food price relationship - which is a key input and indicator of higher inflation from an energy price shock - highlight the latest crypto updates for the major coins like Bitcoin and the overall space, and lastly preview what we’re going to cover tomorrow.
Not yet a MacroEdge Ozone subscriber? Upgrade below and get all of the latest MacroEdge data, research, strategy, reports & much more. Stay tuned for updates to all things from our Macro Research in the coming weeks and months as we roll out things like The Macro Club & more.
War Updates for the Day
US forces extracted a second F-15 pilot from Iran - the aircraft was shot down over SW Iran - the IRGC likely held off on mobilization to avoid catastrophe in a remote area, and skirmishes were limited.
Infrastructure attacks on both sides accelerated today - with Israel & US airstrikes targeting Iranian oil and energy infrastructure and Iran missile and drone attacks focusing on oil and military infrastructure across the GCC.
Iran appears to be shifting to a more targeted approach in strikes, which may signal some missile rationing, though officials still place their inventories in the ~1,500 or so range.
Trump posted another 48-hour ultimatum for Iran on a potential ceasefire, promising hell if they did not comply.
The energy crisis continues to tick closer by the day to the complete oblivious nature of most - and we’re now on a 2-week clock for Europe before impacts become much more significant there, and about 3-weeks for the United States for specific diesels and jet fuels.
March Employment Report - Another Screwball
The March employment report was another mixed batch - federal government employment continued to contract (which I expect to end its contraction in the second half of the year) - this is the smallest federal workforce we’ve seen since the 60s (at about 2.65mm, down from the 3+ million peak under Biden).
Continued below: (March Employment Report Recap, A Look at the Oil & Food Price Relationship, An Update on Crypto, a Preview of the Weekly Macro Note)… & more
