Saturday Macro Note: Inflationary Pressures Continue to Mount, Spirit Airlines Failure, Energy Portfolio Strategy Update

In this Saturday Macro note we discuss mounting inflationary pressures - from food to fuel prices, talk about the Spirit Airlines failure, and provide an update to the MacroEdge Energy Port. Strategy

Don Johnson (@DonMiami3), Chief Economist

Good Saturday evening MacroEdge Readers & Community,

It’s nice to join you on this Saturday, back from the PST. I will be heading to the Texas Panhandle with Six later in the coming week as we launch our ‘On the Ground’ series - covering agriculture, specifically in the corn, wheat, and fertilizer segments. While we’ve discussed the ‘why’ many times in the last week, and it appears that a major commodity price increase is underway across the board, from food, to metals, to energy inputs, and much more.

We are also busy in the escrow process of a deal we’ve closed on in North Dakota - and I will have more exciting updates on this front as the month of May progresses. This is just the beginning of our expansion into real asset ownership as a firm, and a core component of the research we put out is actually backing it up with our portfolio decisions. The opportunity in the next 5 years on the ‘structural shortage’ front in real assets is one of the best setups that we’ve ever seen - especially given the fact that we have governments around the globe that will do whatever it takes to continue stimulating demand through aggressive borrowing and printing. Tomorrow I will briefly outline the timeline on our TREX partnership & Portfolio Strategy rollout - which will come in the early to mid-summer.

On the labor front, the labor market remained soft in April. Job creation will show moderate to slow growth in the headline numbers, and job cuts were again quite significant. The environment for new grads remains mostly poor, but we’re starting to see more layoffs impact the near-retirement age class, as they usually carry the largest cost burden for organizations.

MacroEdge Job Cuts Tracker - through April 2026

Today, I am going to keep it quite brief as we dive into the latest inflation figures, provide a MacroEdge energy portfolio strategy update, and discuss the Spirit Airlines failure.

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Inflationary Pressures Continue to Mount

One of the most concerning signals that cannot be ignored is the alarm bells on the inflationary front that are sounding. Similarly to 2021, these are being ignored in the excitement of the broader high beta assets ‘crashing up’ on a daily basis - but everything from food prices, to airline ticket prices, fuel prices, and more are on the move higher. While real estate prices aren’t participating on the aggregate - remaining largely flat over the last year - they’re already prohibitive from a demand perspective.

Domestic Air Carrier - PPI

ISM Prices Paid v CPI

DBA - Invesco Ag Fund

5 & 10-year breakevens are also breaking out to higher levels (so are yields for those paying attention to the 2, 10, and 30-year yields)...

Foreign yields continue to provide a nice signal for direction for where I think we’re heading on the inflation front… The Fed will continue to hold rates as we navigate the energy shock… at least for the time being. (yes, they could hike too).

Energy Portfolio Strategy Update

Since inception, (February 25, 2026), the MacroEdge energy portfolio strategy is up 25.83%. We made some frequent adjustments to the strategy through March, but are keeping things in line with our high-torque outlook for the sector.

(Continued below: MacroEdge Energy Portfolio Strategy Update, Spirit Airlines Failure - Evidence of a new ‘Gilded Age’?, Weekly Macro Note Preview)…