Redeye Macro Note: Supersized 'TACO' Returns, Macro Data Review, Weekend Geopolitical Events, Latest Oil and Gas Data + Technicals

In this Redeye Macro Note - we discuss the supersized TACO from this evening with Trump halting the Iran offensive, discuss the latest on the macro data front, new offerings, and much more.

Don Johnson (@DonMiami3), Chief Economist

Good Saturday evening MacroEdge Readers & Community,

This is actually being written mid-morning as I head cross-country for 2 days of summer Arizona golf… It’s a great time of year to get out on the courses in Arizona because summer pricing is in effect and there’s usually no one out there past the 11am tee time. Ever so often, these weekend trips are a great reset to get some clear thinking and go over everything that we’re building. August is also a special month since it’s the month that I made the decision to exit the corporate sphere, now almost 3 years ago, and transition into our organization in a full time leadership capacity.

There’s a lot of exciting things that continue to come out of our organization, and the second half of 2026 is going to be a period of growth and acceleration - both in and outside of the global macro sphere. More to be discussed on this on Wednesday in its own report/update as I outline some changes coming in the second half of the year. Under our Macro Research division, we will be introducing Portfolio Strategy, Oil and Gas Research, and expanding our economic advisory solutions to oil and gas firms across the Western Hemisphere. Included in Portfolio Strategy will be two flagship portfolio strategies managed by our team, key market driving insights, and real-time updates to said strategies. Under oil and gas research - like it sounds - this will also be a standalone offering focusing strictly on the oil and gas world. The sector continues to be grossly underweighted in market cap terms relative to its importance - and as worsening demographics globally come into greater play, I continue to believe we’re heading toward, and not away from, an era of much greater scarcity amid the print/inflate/pray models that we continue to see implemented across the West and Asia. Our economic advisory solutions will be expanded to the oil and gas sector, additionally, and made available primarily for upstream & non-operated financial firms in the sector. More on all of this will be available on Wednesday in much greater detail. As discussed on Thursday evening, as well, our new partnership with two oil and gas firms is enabling us to expand greater into that space - and as new opportunities come available for alternative investments, I will be sharing this information for those interested in the entire oil and gas landscape beyond the very small public equity world…

In this brief Redeye Macro Note (yes, my eyes are indeed red from the very early morning flight time)... we’ll be covering the following:

• Reports in the Pipeline

• Macro Data from the Past Week

• Weekend Geopolitical Events, Thus Far

• The Latest Energy Technicals

Since this report is being drafted morning/midday depending on your timezone, it may not have the absolute latest geopolitical/war/headlines, so I recommend checking our X account (@MacroEdgeRes) in the event anything does come up. On the macro data side of things, the last week was mostly uneventful outside of

& thank you to our fantastic community for getting us back on the Top 100 Rising list to start this very warm weekend! It has been great engaging with many of you in the comment sections, etc., of recent reports (and on X)... it’s something that I am trying to get better at amidst greater schedule demands.

Reports in the Pipeline

• (Sunday) Weekly Macro Note - What’s Next for Bond Vigilantes, Japan Satellite State Status, Week Ahead, Asia Update Part 5

• (Tuesday) War Note

• (Wednesday) A MacroEdge Update - What’s Ahead and What’s New in 2H of 2026

Not yet a MacroEdge paid subscriber? Upgrade to paid Ozone on Substack to get all of our reports, data, commentary, portfolio strategy, and much more - with more exciting things on the way this month.

Macro Data from the Past Week

In terms of notable macro data for the past week, GDP was already discussed in the Midweek Macro Note. Real growth is anemic with inflation absolutely ripping (it continues to do so, contrary to the opinions of those on X) - just look at the bond market.

PCE came in hot again (the month/month decline is noise) - and rate cut odds are ticking higher as a result:

This Administration only knows one thing: inflate, inflate, inflate - and we’re going to see them attempt to do just that - especially with midterms only being 3 months away.

September rate hike odds (25bp) are now about 70/30:

The FOMC dropped the ball on a rate hike, and Warsh is being overhyped as a 5D intellectual chess player… What I saw was not Greenspan in any way, shape, or form - but we’ll see as things progress into the September meeting. If Warsh does get consent to cut the number of FOMC meetings per year - that would actually be a tremendous victory for us all.

10Y reaction to the FOMC meeting and press conference:

The 10Y was even more extreme - again hitting multi-decade highs.

In Japan, they held rates as expected, and outside of that event - they may hike one more time this cycle before the wheels start coming off the bus. Note the correlation over time between the BoJ beginning to ease and the wheels coming off the bus of the global economy - they are generally very coordinated - and even more so given how much this political administration is pulling Japanese decision-making under their influence.

Weekend Geopolitical Events, Thus Far

(Continued below: Weekend Geopolitical Events, Thus Far - A ‘Supersized’ Trump TACO, The Latest Energy Technicals, & Much More’…)…

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