Redeye Macro Note: Quiet Weeks of Summer Ahead, War Resumption, Oil and Gas Update, Portfolio Strategy Note, and More
In this Redeye Macro Note - we discuss the quiet weeks of summer ahead, highlight war resumption risks, discuss the latest on oil and gas, and Six provides an update on the Portfolio Strategy Note.
Don Johnson (@DonMiami3), Chief Economist
Good Friday evening MacroEdge Readers & Community,
This evening we’ll keep it short with a brief end of week wrap up to the post-holiday week. Hopefully you all had safe travels back home and are ready for the long summer stretch that we discussed in the Weekly Macro Note. I am not expecting a whole lot during the July and August months - and the Administration is going to remain very cognizant of equity markets given how close we are to midterms now. The #1 mandate of the ‘stock market is the economy’ and with labor market trends - like the total number of Americans out of the workforce exploding - they know that it’s paramount that they continue to pump assets higher. On Monday, SK Hynix will begin trading in the US - and IPOs continue to serve as exit liquidity this year as evidenced by names like SpaceX - where most investors through vehicles like SPVs remain locked up for long durations.
It was fantastic to get back in the cadence of MacroEdge Radio this evening - as we hosted ‘Nobody Special’ for Episode #75 for a deep dive and discussion on Asia, semiconductors, the AI bubble, circular financing and more. The episode will be live on our YouTube channel in the morning, as well as via Spotify and Apple Podcasts - and we will be full throttle on a fantastic guest lineup in the coming days for the rest of July, August, and September.
For the week - markets were relatively tame - the Nasdaq is up about 2% from the lows on higher action in semiconductor action - and crypto is moving higher (which we’ll discuss more tomorrow in a brief Saturday Macro Note as we look to decipher the next moves for risk)... WTI spot gained about $3/bbl on the week - which at one point was $7/bbl when the conflict in Iran began to flare up as they began enforcing stricter Strait of Hormuz controls. I continue to believe that China is playing a key role in letting Iran ebb & flow in their enforcement of the Strait and in their military actions. Military action of late has been very tame - focused on US assets and bases in the region rather than energy infrastructure - and a lot of what we’re seeing on the conflict front continues to be theater. For the US - this benefits equity markets - as the war instability means markets begin searching for any reason to climb higher. On top of that - the Treasury Dept began enforcing limited sanctions against Iran again this week - and it remains unknown how much money has actually been transferred to Iran to date from GCC countries (in frozen and non-frozen funds).
This evening we’re going to briefly cover the ‘quiet weeks’ of summer ahead, talk about the war resumption and potential for escalation, provide an update on oil and gas, and Six will provide a portfolio strategy note.
Saturday Macro Note discussion:
Asian Risks Part 3
A Look At Crypto - Positive Underlying Signals for Risk?
TREX - Partnering for the Future of Non-Op O&G
Sunday Macro Note:
A Latest Look at Housing Data & Foreclosures
Homebuilder Equity Summer Look
Technical Opportunities and Red Flags
Macro Week Ahead
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