Redeye Macro Note: Japan Obsession, Trident, Technical Bonanza, AI Bubble, Macro Data Discussion

In this significant deep dive, our Chief Economist dives into his Japan obsession, Trident, technicals, internals, the AI bubble, and macro data from the week now behind us. #MacroEdge

Good Friday evening MacroEdge readers & community,

This Friday evening we’ll be diving into the latest technicals, internals, and my thoughts on the shifts observed in global markets this week. While the volume abated a bit in the US markets - further technical damage and confirmation was done - as we had forecasted from last Sunday evening in our Weekly Ozone Report:

Pardon any typos in this edition as I am writing very late, and in the middle of getting ready for another conference weekend next week in Dallas…

I expect things to remain quite volatile leading up to the Trump April 2nd tariff announcement even though I am not overweighting the impact of the headlines. The policy uncertainty is causing the Federal Reserve to shift into a wait-and-see mode as measured by their comments over the past two weeks - which has driven further ‘spook’ in equities (high beta ones in particular). There still hasn’t been a capitulation moment that would be indicative of the end of a more significant impulsive wave - and we were stuck in a distribution pattern for nearly two weeks following the large move down in late February in early March - that gave the Nasdaq nearly a 15% haircut. This week ahead there’s a lot of macro data hitting the tape and that will amplify market action, along with Trump tariffs, and growing investor uncertainty. One thing I am growing more confident in our ability to forecast is the fact that market has fundamentally broken the uptrend or ‘blowoff’ - as I’ve defined it as’ from early 2023 to present - and the Bessent/Powell backdrop is considerably different than the the Yellen/Powell/Biden accommodative BTFP era. The Trump Risk Matrix has kicked into overdrive, and we find ourselves in a very different backdrop than 2023 and 2024… Let’s dive into the data, technicals, internals, risks, Japanese data, and more below.

Catch the next RESights Report on Sunday evening with real estate data from across the country, tariff forecasts, and much more with two week access to MacroEdge Ozone below:

Trident -

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Brief Weekly Macro Signals Overview

Since we’re deep diving the real estate situation in the weekend report - with surging inventories in both available rental and for-sale inventories - we’ll cover the macro data from the week in this Redeye Macro Note. Political hacks like ZeroHedge & others will call out the UMich and other survey data for particular political bifurcations seen within the data - but they were silent on the same trends under the previous administration… Here - we’re trying to keep it purely objective and just show you what the trends are showing.