Redeye Macro Note: Institutional by MacroEdge, Goldeneye, PCE Reflection, Jaws of Kyoto Pt. 3, Cryptoland Cracks

In this Redeye Macro Note, we discuss our new offering - Institutional by MacroEdge (to replace AlphaOne in name), talk about the relentless rally in gold, PCE, the 'Jaws of Kyoto' pt. 3, and more.

Good Friday evening MacroEdge Readers and Community,

This week wrapped up with some interesting data - more of which we’ll cover in our Weekly Macro Note that will be released on Monday evening at our usual time because of the Labor Day holiday. While many folks will be slumbering or enjoying their last summer cocktails from Tulum to Miami Beach, we’ll be glued to the screens to continue accelerating our progress here at MacroEdge.

There was some interesting data from the previous week - with everything from mixed earnings pictures, to SMCI accounting warnings, accelerating Nowcasts, cooling PMI data, and more - the complicated macro crosscurrents continue at full speed. This evening before the longer Labor Day edition of our Weekly Macro Note - we’ll briefly touch on some notable trends from Wednesday to now, including the new all-time high in gold, a warm PCE reading for July, a 3rd update to our ‘Jaws of Kyoto’ discussion, and highlight some of the cracks appearing in cryptoland - notably in Bitcoin.

Let’s dive in.

Cleaning Up Our Divisions

In conversations with some of you all over the past few weeks - we understood that we were seeing confusion in what our new divisions were, who they served, and what they even meant. Given that confusion - we decided to take a streamlined approach to rebranding all of our divisions to the below structure, to keep things simple:

Transform

Professional Services Division

Research

> Ozone

> Institutional

> Our Data

Real Estate

> RESights

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‘Other’

Operating MacroEdge TV, our Social Club, seeking opportunities outside of the macro landscape, and much more.

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Institutional by MacroEdge

Most research is noise. It is commentary written after the fact, designed to look smart but incapable of shaping strategy. MacroEdge Institutional Research is different. We built it to deliver clarity that cuts through chaos, with analytics and insights that directly move capital.

Our team is not in the business of telling you what already happened. We show you the signals that matter and the paths that generate intelligent decision-making. Whether you are a wealth manager under pressure from demanding clients, an accredited investor searching for conviction, or a fund manager navigating volatile cycles, the impact is immediate.

MacroEdge Institutional delivers data, analytics, and forward-looking strategy at the highest standard. We do not care about consensus. We care about results. The firms and investors aligned with us gain the kind of edge that separates winners from everyone else.

If you are serious about positioning your capital with intelligence and precision, learn more about MacroEdge by getting in touch with our team.

Schedule a conversation with us today and see how MacroEdge Institutional Research can reshape the way you deploy money, with one month of access to our newest offering, below:

Try MacroEdge Institutional Research for One Month: Schedule a Conversation with Our Team

New to MacroEdge? Try MacroEdge Ozone for 14 Days: MacroEdge Ozone Access - Two Week

Goldeneye

It’s been a breathtaking year for the precious metal - which continued to fly higher on macro uncertainty, uncertainty about ‘Fed independence’, and the general investor doubt that everything is ‘a-okay’ ie: tariffs, inflation, employment. Central bank holdings of gold have also continued to surge higher - and we noted early last year that opportunities for gold outperformance against everything - including technology equities, were there.

Is gold sensing yet another policy mistake in the ‘more of the same’ idiocy that we continue to get dumped on our heads by our brilliant leaders in DC?

PCE Reflection

Jaws of Kyoto Pt. 3 & Cryptoland Cracks

Right now we’re sort of looking over the waterfall, and it’s a long fall - but the current has pushed momentum the other way after the April - present rally. Thus far it’s looking like our forecast from February can remain intact, though we’ll see if there are any further upside catalysts (or bailouts… etc) you name it between now and the likely rate cut in a few weeks. The rate cut may not be a positive catalyst if associated with continued sticky inflation and labor data finally breaking over the next 12-18 months… don’t forget that things like issues in real estate (when it comes to deliquencies/foreclosures/price cuts) and unemployment (ie: U3) always have the longest lag after Fed hiking cycles… this cycle still seems to not be an exception to that.

Risks in equity markets given valuations, internals, concentration, and technicals, are shifting my view back more towards a February lens, though we’re not quite there on pulling the trigger with 100% conviction. Look out for a catalyst at any moment in what will likely be a very bifurcated outcome for the chart above.

Given the leading nature of Bitcoin previously back in April, and prior to that in past cycles - its similar pattern to late 2021 remains quite notable. Declining Bitcoin signals financial conditions tightening and liquidity issues at the margin - and I think this should continue to be monitored into the fall and winter, now that we’re seeing some of the metoric gains in the space decelerate, and there are a lot of copycat Microstrategy types (yes I know it’s called Strategy now) that could cause trouble here if real selling was to take place.

Weekly and monthly signals, as I’ve continued to note, tend to take a long time to resolve: