Redeye Macro Note: Geopolitical Outlook - Chinese Discussions, India/Pak Ceasefire, Russia, Travel & Gaming Data + Speculative Appetite Review

In this Redeye Macro Note we dive into the Chinese tariff discussions, India/Pakistan ceasefire, and review the current speculative appetite mood in markets -- looking at both Bitcoin & single sectors

Good Saturday evening MacroEdge Readers & Community,

This Saturday we have a brief geopolitical note covering the latest from the Chinese discussions (that started today), the India/Pakistan conflict and now ceasefire, Russia/Ukraine meetings on May 15th in Turkey, a brief look at the latest travel and gaming data, and review of current speculative appetite — particularly from retail investors that remains extreme (back to February levels).

When you look at the broader macro picture, little has changed or evolved from a data standpoint - and valuations are nearly back to their cycle highs - using CAPE & other preferred measures I like to employ. From a technical standpoint - markets remain below the weekly critical ‘blowoff’ breakdown - and much has been priced in from the April intervention lows (including now a China deal). From a positives standpoint - Six mentions some things below that may drive higher price action on a China deal - like the deal or negotiation going significantly better than what markets are currently pricing (something along the lines of a full tariff walk-back)… This continues to be a cycle moving at a snails pace - but the broader risk profile remains unchanged. As for valuations, our only other instance of multiple expansion beyond CAPE > 38 remains the Dotcom cycle, while other global instances are even rarer in developed markets — with rare examples of Japan in 90 & more.

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Report Tomorrow - Real Estate Deep Dive, China Discussions Pt. 2, Technicals, Tariff Impact, Valuation Expansions, Vision Note, and More

Don’t miss the report tomorrow - covering the above as we tackle the bounce in multiples seen in April with the fiscal put and look ahead towards price action. We’ll also discuss the latest on the China discussions — which we expect to have more details/information on by late afternoon or early evening before currency markets open. The Weekly Macro Note will be out about 10pm EST.

Geopolitical Review - Redeye Macro Note