Redeye Macro Note: "A Short Run Through Kyoto", Weekly Uptrend Break
In this weekly Redeye Macro Note we discuss the similarities between the current market structure and Japan in the 90s, the Yen, JP10Y, Fed, market risks, volatility, technicals, and more.
Good Friday evening MacroEdge Readers and Community,
Tonight we’re titling our Redeye Macro Note a ‘Short Run Through Tokyo’ as we dive into the data from this week, technicals, and where the market stands - including the Nasdaq, VIX, and much more. The markets themselves remained largely flat this week - expected after the large impulsive move down from February - which is allowing shorter-term technicals to reset as they were at pandemic crash oversold conditions.We also saw distribution in lower price action through the week on declining volume, as retail continued to attempt to buy the dip. On our end, retail ‘bearishness’ remains elusive based on real-time sentiment indicators like X posts, distribution volume patterns, and a wide skew on survey data like AAII. I expect retail bearishness and the first real ‘bounce move’ to arrive when there is higher volume and round one of capitulation, for now, I describe a different kind of bounce scenario below that we cover in the technical overview.
We have significant degradation in both technicals and internals - and economic uncertainty may feed into worse earnings starting in April - as I expect it to. We saw very poor earnings out of FedEx, Micron, and Nike - and that was reflected in their stock performance today. While we rebounded into close, some of that was due to the Yen weakening - and mechanical/passive flows along with Opex. If you’re a keen market participant or institution - you’ll likely be following Bitcoin anyway over the weekend for leading signs for markets into the open on Sunday night.
Tonight we’ll dive into: ‘A Short Run Through Kyoto”,
A Short Run Through Kyoto
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