Nvidia (NVDA) 'Olympics' is Complete, Claims, More Data Ahead - Thursday Afternoon Market Note
A brief pre-holiday afternoon note from our Chief Economist on the Nvidia report and more important economic data on the horizon including potential global rate cuts, and labor market data.
Good Thursday afternoon everyone,
We haven’t tried an afternoon note yet so why don’t why change things up for once? Hope you all have had a chance to check out the new Casino Gaming Revenue Index & keep an eye out tomorrow for 3 new datasets were developing for the Ozone dashboard. It’s also pre-holiday weekend so thought I’d get one out before we all have the chance to enjoy the long weekend.
Yesterday evening we got a combination of NVDA earnings, updated jobs data, global data and more. Now that we have the celebrations of NVDA shareholders around the globe behind us, we can again focus on the data affecting global central banks and their policy decisions over the coming months.
The NVDA report was received positively by markets (double beat, q/q growth - growth remained positive although it slowed) and futures climbed sharply in the overnight hours. I was surprised it wasn’t up quite a bit further given where rates are at (still in the ‘nirvana’ territory) of markets not being too worried about inflation and too worried about the labor market. Expect this regime to continue until the labor data grows more concerning and yields signal warnings the other way (down), unless - in the more unlikely scenario - we see some large resurgence in inflation. I will pass the rest of the commentary on the equity markets over to Six for the weekend report this Sunday which you can catch with MacroEdge Ozone:
The focus going forward will pivot back to yields & bonds as the ECB has signaled it will likely begin rate cuts as soon as next month. We know from past discussions that Sweden has already begun their rate-cutting cycle and cooler inflation in the UK is providing a potential runway on future cuts as their labor market has cooled the sharpest of any developed country we’re tracking.
