Monday Macro Note: Vision Report, Japan Risks Continue, JOLTS, Little Fear, Bear Market Rally?

In this Monday Macro Note the team dives into continued risks out of Japan, the growing potential of a technical confirmation for a bear market, retail fear, JOLTS, and more. #MacroEdge

(@DonMiami3, MacroEdge Chief Economist)

Good Monday evening, MacroEdge Readers & Community,

I’ll keep my piece short this evening as we have Six and John joining in for a MacroEdge Vision note and ‘historical connections’ piece. Interesting market action today across the board as we saw major risk-off action continue - the Yen strengthened further - and the Nasdaq is approaching being flat on a year-to-year basis. After hours, we saw Oracle fade, and Bitcoin fell below $77,000 briefly... Lots of risk to go around, and weekly and monthly technicals are beginning major ‘risk-off’ trend confirmations. The Nasdaq also made its first death cross on the MACD since February 2022.

We’ve been discussing the risk around Japan for weeks now, and that discussion will continue as we move into the Midweek Macro Report. I would caution retail shorts against getting too frothy into an extended ‘panic dip’ as we’re nearing a point where our first ‘bear market rally’ may be due to bump back into the undercarriage of the 200-day moving average. Remaining agile is key.

Tomorrow, we will get the JOLTS report that was delayed from a week ago, and it could be a spooker to an intermediate low as short-term technicals hit COVID panic levels.

USD/JPY below 147 resulted in more risk off today: