Good Wednesday evening MacroEdge Readers & Community,
This evening we’ll keep it shorter on the intro and dive into an update on the Trump Risk Matrix, Japanese risks – including the JP10Y and yen, and discuss our latest technical/internal overview. Six & John have more to discuss on the AI bubble trade, and we’ll have a longer article Friday evening after we register the weekly close, get some more information on the tariffs, and can digest in the inflation data out of both Tokyo and here in the United States. Today we saw a lower volume sell-off in the market (yet higher than yesterday from a volume standpoint) and I view this weekly close and next as highly consequential for the next two quarters at minimum.
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Trump Risk Matrix Update
While we remain in a very dynamic market environment under the ‘Trump Risk Matrix’ - the moves and evolutions to our matrix have been arriving quickly. While the auto tariff news spooked markets a bit after market close - I don’t think they are by themselves a big market mover. A lot of the ‘tariff spook’ has made its way into the markets already and now we’re waiting to quantify actual tariff impact on sales, demand/imports, and inflation (price pressures).