Midweek Macro Note: NFP Preview, Roulette Wheel, 'Jaws of Kyoto' Pt. 4, 10Y, a Bohemian Rhapsody Report

In this Midweek Macro Note we dive into our NFP Preview, aka 'roulette wheel' of data quality, discuss the 'Jaws of Kyoto' pt. 4, the 10-year, and more. #MacroEdge

Good Thursday evening MacroEdge Readers & Community,

This evening we’ll have a brief preview for the Friday NFP numbers which will be released in just a few hours. The August employment data picture became more complex, with some slight rebound seen in available job postings (in the live data), while job cuts surged (MacroEdge) and hiring intentions were at their lowest level since August 2009 (Challenger).

In our next Redeye Macro Note, we’ll talk more about the launch date of our enhanced research and data offering, MacroEdge Institutional Research - that will become available on October 1st. Within Institutional Research will be:

• The MacroEdge Institutional Research Portfolio Index (MIRP Index) is the benchmark. It defines the playing field and sets the standard for capital allocation and performance.

• Institutional Research is not commentary, it is a system. Critical macro indicators, valuation signals, and actionable intelligence are delivered as one unified framework for decision-making.

• We move with conviction, not consensus. Monthly and intramonth insights highlight asymmetric opportunities and strip out the noise so capital moves faster and with more precision.

• This is the reference point. MacroEdge Institutional Research is designed to anchor portfolio managers and allocators as they navigate the cycle and pursue superior returns.

NFP Preview - Expecting More of the Same on the BLS Roulette Wheel

August is rarely a ‘blowout’ month for employment - but there’s a weird thought I have that this report could suprise us all one way or the other. Either way, this likely solidifies the rate cut for September, especially as the 3M yield has started to push lower. Note: the short end and the long end don’t necessarily have to move in lockstep, even if they cut rates, the 10/30 may rise - as one example.

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A NFP print above 130K likely sends equity markets to all-time highs, if interpreted as a rate cut x okay employment combo, though the 10Y may rise.