Midweek Macro Note: Fire the Fiscal Cannon, Fed Stays 'Disciplined', Bidenomics?, Tariff Pauses, Bonds...

In this Midweek Report - we dive into the latest market movements (in equities and bonds), talk tariffs, Bidenomics flashbacks, provide a Vision Note, and more.

Fire the Fiscal Cannon, Fed Stays 'Disciplined', Bidenomics? (@DonMiami3, MacroEdge Chief Economist)

Good Wednesday evening MacroEdge readers and community,

I had a very successful weekend in California at both a charity golf tournament and meeting with some very unique individuals that we are building long-term relationships with. In this Midweek Macro Note - we’ll briefly cover the ‘fiscal cannon’, the Fed - of which we will hear from tomorrow as Jerome Powell speaks early in the morning before market open, a return to ‘Bidenomics’ as Bessent & the Trump Admin rapidly ease financial conditions, and reasons why we remain cautious in this latest bout of euphoria.

The bounce from the April intervention lows and tariff rollbacks is now on par with the rally seen after the COVID lockdown lows - when the Federal Reserve & Congress undertook the largest bailout measures the world has ever seen. Today we find ourselves in a very different world - one where credit card delinquencies are surpassing 2011 levels and valuations, technicals, and support from the Fed look very different.

90-day delinquency rates surpassing 2011 levels:

Let’s hop into the data and my thoughts.

Macro Data & Earnings the Rest of the Week

> Walmart & Applied Materials report tomorrow

> Fed Powell speech

> Retail Sales

> PPI

> Manufacturing data

> (Friday) Housing Starts/Permits

> (Friday) Import/Export Prices

> (Friday) Univ of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

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Fire the Fiscal Cannon and Bidenomics?:

After a short-lived flirtation with fiscal restraint, the administration has gone full-circle — and we’re essentially right back to Bidenomics, but with more adrenaline (for at least what might be a brief period on the back of the equity market advance). In the last few weeks, they’ve quietly resumed the playbook: bigger deficits, broader tax cuts, and a deliberate avoidance of any tough stance on spending discipline. They’re not even pretending anymore.

The White House is back on offense - floating middle-class tax cuts, opening the door to corporate sweeteners, and foaming the runway for a 2025-style fiscal blowout. No one’s doing the math on the deficit because the deficit has become a secondary concern, if that. They're writing the checks now and betting that the Fed can worry about inflation later - or that voters won’t care in time to matter. Tariff policy, which for a hot minute was pitched as a pressure valve and a revenue offset, has been reduced to a side show. After a handful of headlines suggesting an interventionist push, what we’ve gotten instead are pauses, carve-outs, and quiet retreats — no follow-through, no real conviction. There’s no appetite for actual confrontation with the bond market, and they know it. They’re running this pivot straight through for now and hoping no one notices the long end bleeding out.

Bessent hasn’t said a word about yields (yet – though above 4.6% I expect he will). Not one mention of the curve, the spread, or the debt servicing burden. Because they can’t. The deficit is back to being a bailout tool, not a constraint, and Bidenomics is back on the table — minus the branding, but with all the spending. Let’s not even talk about DOGE…

Fed Stays ‘Disciplined’