Midweek 7/18 Macro Research Note: Volatility, Cuts, Real Estate Minute, Manufacturing Data, Vision Update

MacroEdge Midweek Note for 7/18: Volatility rebounds, real estate contraction has teeth, manufacturing data remains okay, and an update to MacroEdge Vision

Good Thursday evening to all in the MacroEdge Community, 

This week, we’ve had an interesting dose of volatility to cause corrections in areas like semiconductors and other high beta names that have been on a tear for the first half of the year. While sentiment remains near all-time euphoric levels, we’re standing on the side of a larger spike in volatility occurring post-rate cuts, as we’ve seen in past cycles with employment issues. We spoke on this about a month ago in “Volatility Gets Volatile Post Cuts”, which we’ll cover again this evening. The Vision Equity Research desk, led by @SixFinance,  is positioning for unique opportunities that occur during these cutting cycles, so make sure to stay in tune with all of our work through MacroEdge Ozone at: MacroEdge.net/trial 

As measured by the MacroEdge Job Cuts Tracker, job cuts remain elevated, with over 57,000 job cuts tracked this month. Large layoffs have been announced this month from companies like UKG, as well as companies in rate-sensitive industries like Mercury Marine. The labor market continues to be our largest macro-level focus with employment weakening continuing in most states, and nationally. We continue to lead the way in prioritizing a labor market-first approach to understanding these weakening trends, while most institutions and organizations are still ignoring the dynamic, or have just begun coverage of it.