Midnight Macro 'Redeye' Note: Macro Risks are Quite Elevated - Meet "TRUMPETS" - The Compressed Trump Risk Matrix

In this Midnight Macro note - we dive into elevated market risks - including longer-term technical warnings, inflation surprises, labor market data, valuations, and more.

Good Friday evening MacroEdge Readers and Community,

In this week’s Redeye report, we’ll dive into the elevated risk landscape that has seen baseline risk increase over the past few days. With the ‘Trump Risk Matrix’ in our back pocket - we’ve seen valuations again come back into relevance (not our primary risk focus, given that they can’t be timed) - as they exert pressure on market excesses. If you had a chance to join the team with Anna Wong of Bloomberg today, I was thrilled at what a fantastic show we had for MacroEdge Radio #40. So much knowledge that Anna shared and John had fantastic points and questions to keep the guest on her feet at all times…!

Hopefully, you join me this weekend in reading our guest appearances in the The YEET as well as Money Machine Newsletter where we’ll be discussing air travel data (and other critical airline industry trends) as well as macro in the MMN. Excited to be sharing thoughts there.

This continues to be an environment that pulls from elements of 2000 (current crypto gambling mania, valuation run-ups on midcaps, has cooled on MAGS…), 2018-2019 Trade Wars, and late 2021-early 2022 (look at homebuilders peaking, as one example)…

Today we’ll introduce a compressed macro risk matrix to use under the Trump Admin. Meet ‘TRUMPETS’: Our Compressed Trump Risk Matrix Model

We’ll discuss examples of each below, and how they apply to this dynamic risk environment, in a more fragile equity landscape.