Midnight Macro Note: At the Edge of Victoria Falls - Technicals, Macro Data Breezethrough, & More

In a noisy market environment of sample size of three this, sample size of two that, we cut through the noise with a brief Redeye Macro Note to reflect on this Easter Weekend. #MacroEdge

Good Friday (and in the literal sense) MacroEdge Readers & Community,

I am obviously not going to leave anyone hanging for the latest data & insights this holiday weekend.

This Friday I won’t draw out the length of my Redeye Macro Note, given the holiday weekend and the fact that many of us are taking time away from screens, tariff worries, heightened market volatility, and more to enjoy Easter. It’s going to be a beautiful weekend here weather-wise, and with markets closed today, we don’t have much to look at heading into the rest of the long weekend—Saturday and Easter Sunday.

As far as tariff negotiations go, there are a lot of mixed signals coming out of the White House. Hasset is saying deals are once again coming soon, while at the same time, the administration is setting up a special group to ensure that critical mineral and electronic imports continue to flow into the United States—even if progress with China stalls. Both sides appear dug in, though there is still time for resolutions before the larger macro issues I’ve forecasted begin to materialize in both the United States and China as a result of the de facto trade embargo each country has placed on the other.

In our ‘Standing on K2’ analogy, between now and July, the longer we remain in the low oxygen zone, the worse the eventual outcome will be for markets and macro. Given the fiscal put enacted two weeks ago during the first tariff pause, the most expected outcome would be for the Trump administration to walk back tariffs, leading to a market bounce. However, there are still too many uncertainties to rule out an immediate 'crash syndrome'—which I highlight below.

As it stands now—across valuations, technicals, internals, and macro data—we’ve moved from ‘Standing on K2’ to standing at the Edge of Victoria Falls. While the K2 acronym will remain in use throughout the year (and potentially beyond), global financial markets and macro indicators are now on a very thin line, with the shot clock winding down for any bailout from positive forces (some of which were identified in our Midweek Macro Note). With evolving technical patterns, earnings season, macro data, and tariff announcements ahead, we are approaching the next major inflection point for markets.

Let’s dive in.

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The theme of tonight’s Midnight Macro Note: At the Edge of Victoria Falls

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Technicals & Key Market Notes

While the valuation picture has gotten more focus among pundits & economists of late - the broader picture hasn’t shifted that much following the 25% drawdown and ~15% bounce on the Nasdaq. Today we’re focusing on the shorter-term timeframes - and will focus more on the weekly and monthly timeframes in our next Weekly Macro Note on Easter Sunday Evening (note that there is no delay in our release due to the holiday. This shorter-term move is focused on a likely move and direction, from a technical standpoint, between now - that likely carries us through May or June.