Mid-Week Cocktail Hour: Labor Market Softens to Wind Down February

In this quick evening note - MacroEdge's Don Johnson highlights accelerating labor market weakness seen towards the end of February.

Hi all -

Wanted to provide a brief update on the evolving labor market data as it comes in to the end the month. We saw a substantial announcement in Macy’s closure of 150 stores of the next 3 years which will result in the reduction of over 28,000 employees (~9,500 announced for this year). This on top of other large layoffs like ThyssenKrupp this morning announcing 5,000 on top of rising unemployment rates in many states (and worldwide in New Zealand, Canada, and elsewhere) should be watched closely - especially to finish off Q1 and into Q2. We’re entering the traditional labor market weakness window following tightening cycles following month 15 of the inversion of the 10y3m spread (months 15-25), and it looks like the Fed still has work to do in some sunbelt states before unemployment begins to rise there as well.

Job cuts stand at slightly over 71,000 for the month: