MacroEdge RESights 2025 Kickoff: Housing Recession Continues, Rates Up, Inflation Issue Surges

In the first joint RESights + Ozone / Macro Report of 2025, our team dives into troubles in Florida real estate, discusses the surging 10Y, inflation issues, permitting, and much more... #MacroEdge

Critical Points Discussed 

• Nationwide Housing Struggles: Rising mortgage rates, natural disasters, and demographic shifts are destabilizing housing markets across the U.S., threatening affordability and GDP contributions.

• Treasury Yields and Affordability: The 10-year yield near 5% is squeezing credit, eroding housing affordability, and pressuring related sectors like materials and real estate.

• Housing Supply Misconceptions: Claims of shortages overlook structural supply and demographic realities, with aging populations and shrinking households reshaping market dynamics.

• Economic Volatility Ahead: Excessive monetary stimulus and rising yields heighten systemic risks, exposing markets to greater instability and volatility

2025 Kickoff, Risks, Bright Spots, and Much More - Don Johnson (@DonMiami3), Chief Economist

Good Sunday Evening MacroEdge Readers and Community, 

This Sunday evening, we’re watching oil prices creep up (WTI near $80/bbl) alongside natural gas amid another arctic blast expected to hit the South and Southeastern United States next weekend. That means you Texans can keep your winter weather gear ready for at least another few weeks while the story looks a little bit warmer… at least for those of us south of Melbourne… 

With the U3 unemployment rate situation ticking back to 4.1% in the month of December, we will compress the amount of labor market data included in this edition of an Ozone + RESights report. There’s much to discuss below…