MacroEdge RESights 12/15: December Trends, New Inventory Rises, Employment Softens

In our MacroEdge RESights Report for 12/15 - the team discusses housing market strain, affordability and demographics, delinquency risks, and growth concerns.

Good Sunday evening RESights readers and community, 

This evening we’re bringing you a whopper of real estate analysis and insights - from commercial to residential - this team is tracking everything that impacts you, in the world of real estate (or from a macro perspective). 

We’ll be expanding RESights into so much more in 2025, from regional analysis & indexes we are developing for individual metros - to more into individual homebuilding and construction components. Our data focus and dashboard remain in development and we’ll be rolling out things continually in the coming weeks for all RESights & Ozone research subscribers. You will likely be seeing our team members next year at various homebuilding association get-togethers, conferences, and more. I am very excited for what this team can accomplish in 2025.

Let’s examine some of the broader macro industry trends for November and the current month in the real estate sector. 

Critical Points Discussed

• Housing Market Strain: Rising inventory and stagnant construction in the single-family home market, combined with higher mortgage delinquencies, signal cooling conditions, especially in the South, where price growth compression could impact the national market.

• Affordability and Demographics: Shrinking household sizes and affordability issues are worsened by an aging population and investor speculation.

• Mortgage Delinquency Risks: Rising delinquencies in GNMA and private loans signal market stress, with defaults and re-defaults post-COVID forbearance intensifying, especially amid rising unemployment and declining purchasing power.

• Local Growth Concerns: Rapid development is causing overbuilding, strained infrastructure, and rising costs. Without proper planning, overcrowding, lower property values, and reduced quality of life could follow.

Real Estate Pulse: December Insights - Don Johnson (@DonMiami3), Chief Economist

Housing is Driving this Business Cycle