MacroEdge Redeye - Nevada Employment Touch and Go Update
A quick 'touch and go' labor market update on the Silver State... Happy Easter from the MacroEdge Team
Happy Easter Sunday everyone… it’s very, very early in the am (EST) but I just had a fabulous conversation with an old friend in Singapore who is in the financial sector… Always nice to catch up with old friends and see how they are progressing and succeeding especially when the conversation is rarer and 10,000 miles makes staying in touch a little more difficult these days… Hopefully you all got the catch the the first edition of MacroEdge Radio last night - almost 1,000 people tuned in which was a great holiday weekend turnout. We haven’t yet decided on making this weekly or bi-weekly but will have an update on this sometime midweek.
Given the lateness of the evening and the holiday Ozone release coming tomorrow with a more in-depth update for everyone, I will keep tonight narrowly focused on Nevada’s latest labor market data. Tomorrow we have MacroEdge Mint launching and Six and I are working on putting together an equity research/performance-focused area of Ozone. Get access to Ozone and experience how the MacroEdge Team is embarking on a 2 year vision to transform the financial and economic landscapes with Ozone:
On Nevada, as I talk about usually once a quarter or so - the data remains fairly strong but continues to cool - especially on the labor market front. While total casino gaming revenue remains strong (highest nominally every last month, still trailing 07 in real terms) - casino employment posted it’s largest m/m decline since December 2021.
Total Casino Employment:
Notice that this was a leading indicator prior to both Dotcom and the GFC… so we’ll continue to keep an eye on it.
On unemployment and total employment:
While Nevada has the second highest unemployment rate in the country - it’s unemployment rate doesn’t usually respond until its cyclical sectors break. Casino/hospitality and construction employment remain two of these core areas and employment growth has cooled markedly in both.
Cooling employment growth (on a y/y basis) and job openings are down - but above pre-COVID levels unlike some of the states with sharper labor market downturns starting (ie: California)
On Construction Employment:
When construction employment contracts in Nevada - the music stops. As of our last discussion on Nevada, growth had slowed a bit in construction, but we’ve seen an interesting decline in the last few months… let’s keep an eye on this as well (particularly on the commercial and MFH sides, respectively).
The employment picture in Nevada continues to cool and hopefully this quick evening touch-and-go is a useful picture into why the Silver State is such a critical ‘bellwether’ state to monitor given its highly cyclical boom and bust nature…
Happy Easter again and I will talk to you all soon.
Don