MacroEdge Redeye 8/2: MacroEdge Accuracy, Respect the Lag - Plain and Simple

Employment situation shows real weakness in July, some thoughts, our Roadmap arriving this weekend.

Happy weekend MacroEdge Community,

This will be a short rendition of the MacroEdge Redye for 8/2. Apologies for the late release for those on the Eastern timezone, unfortunately, I am still operating on PST for the next few days, so expect later releases from us over that timeframe. The theme of this short report: respect the lag!

Today we saw real fear enter the markets because of the weaker-than-expected ISM data and fragile employment data this morning. This sent bonds rallying and yields melted to multi-year lows as markets began to price in the expectation of a more aggressive cutting cycle in months to come. Our MacroEdge July unemployment forecast from the Thursday mid-week report, released to Ozone members:

Our labor market data accuracy continues to improve & proud of the work that everyone has done on honing in our accuracy and reducing margin of error.

Don’t miss the rest of the MacroEdge weekend with:

2025 Roadmap Release (Q3)

MacroEdge July Labor Market Report

MacroEdge Ozone Weekly Report + Vision Update

Make sure to join us on our exciting 2025 roadmap if you haven’t yet - and experience MacroEdge Ozone - our flagship research service:

Check out the large jump in total unemployed Americans seeking FTE now, which we’ve posted for the last several months (now we don’t look so crazy, right?):

U3 Unemployment increased to 4.3% today, while U6 unemployment increased to 7.8% (40 basis point jump) - both notable jumps marking a larger shift underway in the American employment market. We continue to respect the lag as likely larger cuts come into view in September. If the data in August materially worsens (we are anticipating large tech companies here in the next couple of weeks based on submitted reader tips), then the train has likely left the employment station. The economy can only weather adding more & more to the unemployment payrolls as job openings continue to come down and July 2024 marks an important inflection point in the cycle.

Our broader labor market outlook continues to remain unchanged and we will discuss the financial markets more in-depth in the Ozone Sunday evening report.

We’ll have more on the entire weakening labor market tomorrow in the Monthly MacroEdge Labor Market Report (July), and look forward to delivering our operational update as part of our 2025 Roadmap, tomorrow.

See you then and have a great weekend,

Don & the MacroEdge Team

“Respecting the Lag”