MacroEdge June Labor Market Report: Transitioning from Softilocks to Soft Takeoff - Employment Market Weakens
The Federal Reserve is running out of runway as the 'soft takeoff' gains momentum and the labor market weakens. Dive right into all of the labor data in this MacroEdge Monthly Labor Market Report.
Good Saturday evening,
Hopefully all of our community members, readers, and Ozone members are having a very enjoyable long 4th of July weekend. We certainly enjoyed the time off Thursday and Friday and are gearing up for a busy second half of the year.
The June employment report confirmed much of what we’ve been expecting for the last year. The labor market continues to weaken, and monetary policy continues to work it’s way through the labor market - resulting in fewer jobs, rising unemployment, and rising labor market stress - rate cuts might be on the horizon but we believe the Fed’s ‘summer of policy errors’ is underway. What this ‘Summer of policy errors’ means is the Fed chooses to ignore obvious labor market warning sizes and remain restrictive with rates at 525-550bps, which will likely have significant ramifications on the labor market for the months (and potentially years) to come. Make sure to join MacroEdge Ozone below for access to all of our labor market reports & more:
As rate cuts in September, November, or December come into play - we look forward to providing a deep dive into things like the VIX and credit spreads tomorrow - which will all become more important as we approach the rate cut(s) ahead. Our sentiment indicators will also be updated - providing us with a great view of what investors are thinking.
