MacroEdge 9/29 Weekly Report: First Fall Update, Direction of the Landing - Hard or Soft?
In this brief MacroEdge Weekly Report for 9/29 - our Chief Economist dives into the data that will determine the direction of the landing for the economy over the next 3-12 months. #MacroEdge
First Fall Update, Direction of the Landing (@DonMiami3, MacroEdge Chief Economist)
Good Sunday evening all,
Hopefully, you’re all having a great end to the weekend - but if you’re just starting your recovery efforts from Hurricane Helene or its aftermath than know that you’re in our thoughts here with the MacroEdge Team. Pretty shocking scenes from both Florida and especially outside of Florida up in the SC/NC areas where the flooding was immense. Keep those people in your thoughts as we start our week and again focus on the employment data. We’ll keep this evening update quite brief given the lack of data from the previous week as well the fact that some of our team members continue to deal with recoveries of their own from the impact of Helene, and we look forward to being back at full operational speed this week. We continue in the background to get our plans put together for both MacroEdge TV and RESights - and we look forward to delivering updates on both in the weeks to come.
The next MacroEdge Vision update will be available in the midweek update, with no changes from the previous Sunday's update from the Vision desk.
Tonight we will focus on the continued ‘landing’ period that we find ourselves in with the Fed having commenced an expected easing cycle with their first cut 50bp move. As we discussed and expected - there’s been a huge wave of excitement surrounding this cut, its potential implications, and what kind of landing it confirms for the economy. Given the continued backdrop of employment weakening, a weak real estate sector (there’s been some excitement about a boost in activity with refi’s - which was to be expected), and continued softness in the cyclical sectors, the landing still looks like a hard one - even if it appears less hard than what individuals were experiencing during the period of high inflation.
Let’s dive right in.
