MacroEdge 8/28 Midweek Report: Holiday Week Roundout, GenAI Wobbles, Vision Update, Nuclear Industry Update
In this midweek report - the team dives into the holiday week data, outlines what's ahead, reviews the GenAI wobbles, discusses the nuclear sector, and more. #TeamMacroEdge
Holiday Week Roundout (@DonMiami3, MacroEdge Chief Economist)
Good Wednesday evening MacroEdge readers and community,
Today we saw the market circus continue as the era of rampant retail speculation and excess continues. One of the more outlandish things I saw was an Nvidia ‘earnings watch party’ which makes me take a step back and scratch my head when I ask a question I do ever so often on my X feed… “Where in the cycle?”. If the move holds there will be billions in losses for retail this week on just that one name, as over $2bn had been bet on the $130C chain expiring this Friday, reflecting the sheer levels of speculation that are reminiscent of late-cycle euphoria in some of our more pronounced bubbles in the modern era (and non).
We continue to drive forward an employment-driven focus with what we’re doing on the macro research side here at MacroEdge and we continue to think the trends of more brisk weakening in the labor market nationally are trends that are not going to stop any time soon. There are huge expectations right now hinging on the easing cycle bringing about ‘economic nirvana’ for employment markets and companies and given the increase in unemployment, rising bankruptcies, defaults, et al. we will continue to stick with our data-first approach on the economy. While the monetary policy lags of this cycle have been very long, they almost always vary. We’ve seen new narrative after new narrative drawn up to paint a picture of why ‘this time will be different!’ as those people continue to ignore the most obvious employment data showing cracks. The PhD economists (many of whom we can’t stand at MacroEdge) line up on television and try to put makeup on the pig as it pertains to data, hiding behind stupid labels like ‘expert’ while trying to pin blame on grocery stores of all businesses for ‘price gouging’? The gall of some of these academics. Unbelievable.
On a more positive note, we’ll have an update tomorrow evening on our timeline for another core part of what we’re doing with our 2025 Roadmap. This includes a targeted soft launch for our new Real Estate unit with a fantastic team - great new offerings, research, and at the core: our driven-by-data approach. Will share more tomorrow evening. Make sure to join us for all of the rest with MacroEdge Ozone at:
*The next data dashboard update will be Friday evening.
Let’s hop into this midweek report.
