The Fall of CCV (@DonMiami3, MacroEdge Chief Economist)
Good Sunday evening all,
Hope you were all able to catch the latest ‘Redeye’ on Friday and a fantastic edition of MacroEdge Radio (#15) on Friday afternoon that was fantastic. That timeslot will be our new time slot going forward - at 4 pm EST - which should be able to accommodate many more listeners versus our former 9 pm EST time that many commented was too late for listening on Friday evening.
We’ve had a lot of political news over the last two weeks - now with the current President announcing he will not seek re-election in the coming presidential election. While there will be a ton of news and hype around this - the markets themselves have been in an autopilot mode so I hesitate to weight that much importance to this event. The most important event will be the 18 months following the Federal Reserve’s signal for lower interest rate - as well as any fiscal policy adjustments we see to match this event.
Today’s shorter Sunday Ozone report will be focused on ‘The Fall of Claims, Cuts, and Volatility’. We’re in a general data lull now until the Fed starts gearing us for likely rate cuts in September so the emphasis continues to be: employment, employment, and employment. With real estate being the largest cyclical sector likely to drive future employment weakness (particularly in multifamily) - this data matters substantially for the economy at large. The President is certainly dropping out of the race at an interesting time in the current employment cycle…?
