MacroEdge 7/19 'Redeye': Mid-Summer Volatility Update, Australian Macro Update, Job Postings Update, 2025 Vision
An update on today's minor bump in volatility, an update on the AUS employment picture, look at job postings, and brief preview of things to come as we expand under our 2025 Vision. #TeamMacroEdge
Happy Friday evening all,
This will be a short ‘Redeye’ piece covering some of the latest important updates of the week on the volatility front, an update on the Australian macro picture, job postings, a quick 2025 Vision note, and a preview of the weekly report ahead.
Tomorrow we will have a comprehensive update to our 2025 Vision - including on the equity research desk, our expansion plans, MacroEdge TV, and more.
We’re in the full swing of Summer now and things have started getting very quiet (and a bit complacent?), activity on X is way down in the FinX world, and those in the financial world are on extended vacations and enjoying the time before the school year kicks off again in a few weeks.
We’ll keep the summer 'Redeye’ updates shorter as we roll out the next phases of our 2025 Vision through the Summer and as things have quieted down. Join us for the next phase of our MacroEdge Vision through Ozone
Volatility Update
Notable comments from Mark Spitznagel, tail hedger:
“Spitznagel said the current rally would likely continue for months as inflation continues to fall and the Fed eases monetary policy” (Markets Insider).
This view aligns pretty similarly with the thoughts of our Vision Equity Research Desk.
VIX was on the edge on Friday, but not confirming the shift in volatility we’re looking for (weekly graph depicted). As we discussed last evening, that larger shift will likely occur after the Fed shifts its policy stance and focuses on the employment mandate over the inflation mandate.
Route Vixty 6 (history doesn’t repeat - but it often rhymes):
Australian Macro Update
Australia published its latest employment data this week. Job growth remained positive - particularly on the full-time side of the equation - but unemployment and total unemployed Australians - increased. This backs the narrative we’re seeing form more broadly in developing nations of unemployment starting to increase with labor markets being impacted by the monetary policy lag of large central bank policy increasing from 22 and 23.
Australia unemployed persons - a new cycle high:
As inflation pressures ease and employment pressures rise - I expect the RBA to lower rates by the end of the year.
Job Postings Update
Live Job Postings continued to decline thru 7/16, seeing a slight rebound week over week, but a decline month over month.
The current trend will result in lower job postings than pre-pandemic levels by the end of Fall.
2025 Vision Update
The comprehensive MacroEdge 2025 Vision Update and Roadmap will be available tomorrow afternoon.
Have a great weekend,
Don (@DonMiami30