MacroEdge 12/1 Ozone Report: Holiday Election Optimism Continues, Macro Remains Mixed

In this Ozone Report - We Discuss the Black Friday Spending Data, 10Y, Employment Data Ahead, Lofty Market Valuations, and More

Holiday Optimism Continues, Macro Remains Mixed (@DonMiami3, MacroEdge Chief Economist)

Good Sunday evening MacroEdge readers and community, 

This evening we’ll dive into the latest macro data from the previous week and cover what’s ahead for us in the United States for the next two weeks. This week we’re shifting back into an employment focus as Friday will see the employment update for November - where we expect to see a continued softening picture on the overall labor market - even though numbers are expected to improve from the very soft October figures. Indicators of economic growth continue to cool into the fourth quarter with real-time Nowcast GDP growth indicators cooling, along with the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Manufacturing orders, manufacturing data, and real estate data continue to look weak - while service sector and holiday spending data are bright spots amongst the cyclical weakness. 

Other weaknesses include CRE and multifamily - which we’ll dive into much more detail with in the next RESights report. Don’t miss our special MacroEdge Radio #31 this coming Friday at 4pm EST with Danielle DiMartino Booth of QIResearch. We’re very excited to discuss the latest macro and market trends that she’s seeing and explore much of what we’re discussing below during that period. 

With that being said - let’s dive into the latest on macro and markets ourselves.