A New American Dawn (@DonMiami3, MacroEdge Chief Economist)
Good Monday evening MacroEdge Readers and Community,
Today marks a ‘New American Dawn’ with a new administration taking form and getting to work immediately on their policy objectives, goals, and directives. While many of these executive actions were to be expected - comments on tariffs sent markets in a back-and-forth tailspin briefly in the overnight hours. This is also the first President we’ve also witnessed see their net worth increase by over $50 billion through the launch of several of their own cryptocurrency tokens in the days leading up to the inauguration. While I remain optimistic about certain politics - such as the Federal hiring freeze - which we’ll discuss more below - there’s reason to remain skeptical on what can really be accomplished over the next 4 years if the said action requires involvement (and/or) compromise from members of a far less useful Congress. While executive action is quick to draw up, and fire, Congress - in particular the Senate - is much less likely to be able to move quickly on key issues.
Just this evening - we’ve seen the Executive Branch take action on everything from immigration to oil drilling & exploration, and more. Trump finds himself today with a much different backdrop, especially when it comes to macro, then he did in 2017. Tonight - we’ll provide a historical look back at the previous Trump term in the context of Federal hiring, the potential impact of the hiring freeze, the performance of things like stocks, bonds/yields, and commodities during the Trump 1 administration and provide an outlook on how we think this first year is going to shape up (as well as how I think this first year is going to shape up for markets, macro, and my favorite small business owners)...
Let’s dive into the data and discussion.