MacroEdge 1/10 Midweek Report: Vision Update, & December Employment Outlook
In this Midweek Report - we dive into our December employment outlook, forecasts, and provide an update from the MacroEdge Vision Team. #MacroEdge
Employment Preview & a Snowstorm (@DonMiami3, MacroEdge Chief Economist)
Good Wednesday evening everyone,
Our thoughts go out to those in California being affected by the most destructive bout of wildfires in state history. One data estimate from a GIS service I subscribe to has pegged the figure already - just for the Palisades Fire - at $57 billion. Including the other fires in Altadena & elsewhere, the total figure may rise above $100 billion. The state will likely face another bout of extreme wind.
Oddly enough, I am penning this evening from West Texas, where we experienced an unusual snowstorm day, as we are building out our nationwide RESights coverage. In our first two pilot markets (one in Montana & one in West Texas), we’re going to be monitoring everything from construction activity to mortgage volume, and much more. This infrastructure is something that we will be rolling out nationwide and we can’t wait for firms, banks, & real estate industry professionals to be ahead of the trends in their own markets (or nationwide) as the year progresses.
This evening we’ll briefly look at our outlook for the December employment report. December remains a markedly consistent month for employment, with most gains since 2000 coming in around +140-150,000 job range. The 10Y has continued to rise, putting pressure on things like the Citi Economic Surprise Index, and data remains a very mixed bag. Things like manufacturing employment and real estate look extremely weak, and other data points like headline GDP (powered by deficit spending) and certain labor market data points continue to look okay. While the labor market continues to highlight a weakening pattern
With the market holiday today - we haven’t seen much in the way of market movement. Bitcoin remained flat to end the off day and we’ve teed up 2025 with a much more volatile start to the year - more similar to 2022 than 2024.
Let’s dive into my employment outlook for tomorrow, a note from Six, and comments from John.
