MacroEdge 10/3 Midweek Report: Labor Market Cools Slightly in September

Job cuts remain elevated, job postings go sideways, hiring plans drop, labor market confidence decreases, and much more in this MacroEdge Midweek Report - more on tomorrow's data expectations, too.

Labor Market Cools Slightly in September (@DonMiami3, MacroEdge Chief Economist)

Good Thursday evening MacroEdge readers and community, 

Hopefully you all have had a great week and start to October, crazy that we are already almost through the year and time seems to be accelerating as this year goes on!

This evening we will discuss some of the latest data on the employment picture from September, outline the remaining data/our expectations, and highlight the continued pattern of a cooling labor market that we’re observing. The overall picture has been one of continued cooling - but not snapping - which continues a trend that we’ve observed in employment since August of 2023 as labor market conditions and data have cooled (and now cooled much more broadly). 

Given that the election is now about a month away, the data of importance and trends to observe will be from November through January - particularly on employment - and for revisions. Much of what we are observing is now election window dressing, although signals like today’s ISM Services orders continue to highlight resilience within the service sector of the economy (even though the employment component contracted). We will also cover the labor trends much more in-depth in the Monthly Labor Market Report for September - which will be available this weekend - but this report will provide a preview of what tomorrow will likely add to what we have. We’ll also briefly discuss a cooling of casino gambling we’re observing through the MacroEdge Casino Gaming Revenue Index - a leading indicator of consumer health - and the landing of the economy - which will be determined by employment data over the next 2-4 quarters contrary to those declaring a particular type of landing at present. We’ll have much, much more this weekend on the state of real estate from our real estate experts - more on employment, markets, and more from the team, so don’t miss a busy MacroEdge weekend with our team and contributors. 

Past cycles of easing have seen similar confusion and questions about the direction of employment, which is why it is too early to declare victory regarding the labor market:

Let’s dive into the job openings data, ISM employment data, KC Fed Employment Index,  MacroEdge Job Cuts data, Challenger Job Cuts data (and… claims!), our expectations for tomorrow, and talk briefly about the Casino Gaming Revenue Index.