Friday Macro Note: The Foreshock, Churn & Burn, a Crypto Earthquake, & Portfolio Strategy Update

In this Friday Macro Note - we lay the foundation for two deep-dive reports this weekend from our team with a discussion on the crypto drop, the churn & burn price action in tech, and much more.

Don Johnson (@DonMiami3), Chief Economist

Good Friday afternoon MacroEdge Readers and Community,

This is somewhat of an off-timed report in our usual cadence but we’ll briefly discuss some of the events of the past week as well as have Six deliver a portfolio strategy report with some new color commentary. We’ll have a follow-up to everything we’re covering today both tomorrow in the Redeye Macro Note, as well as in the Weekly Macro Note on Sunday.

We’re still early in our nearly three month journey zig-zagging across the Western world, and Europe treated us very well. We met amazing people along the way, and I look forward to re-connecting with many of them over the next several weeks.

The report today is going to be very brief, but tomorrow & Sunday we’ll be back to deep dives covering data, what’s ahead, the crypto price action, our portfolio strategy shifts, and much more. I look forward to the busy weekend ahead.

Update to Ozone & 2026 Event Calendar

As we continue to expand our Macro Research operations - particularly with our Economic Advisory practice - we’re making continuous improvements and changes to accurately reflect our product mix. With Ozone now fully hosted on Substack - and all of our data, research, reports, and strategy being located here - all subscriptions, membership management, and more is located here.

Updated Ozone pricing as of 2/6:

$33.33/mo - Ozone (Standard)

$350/yr - Ozone (Annual)

By mid-month, we’ll have our full event calendar for the year, we’re keeping these events small in terms of # of participants, but we’ve got a lot in store.

The Foreshock

This week we saw some significant fear re-enter markets - particularly in the technology and cryptocurrency spaces. If it’s anything like last March/April - when crypto served as a leader - then tech sector upside is going to be limited here in this range. We’re going to discuss this much more in depth in tomorrow and Sunday’s reports, so stay tuned.

Analyzing the Obvious

A weak Yen continues to benefit Asian & US high-beta markets greatly. With the Yen nearing the 160 level again today - we’re seeing the Nikkei up almost 5% after a relatively tepid week.

The Japanese 10Y dip has also supported this move higher, and BoJ policymakers have been very ambiguous in when they might resume rate hikes:

Japanese elections are taking place soon - so that’s something to keep an eye out for over the weekend. Bessent was on television today noting a ‘strong-dollar policy’ but DXY (dollar index) is struggling to reclaim the decade+ long uptrend:

The cryptocurrency dip has been significant - but recall that oversold conditions are often where the largest downside is realized. The balanced price for Bitcoin

AI Capex Scares Investors

The AI Capex figures have started to scare investors - and we’ve seen that in most of the MAGS earnings reactions over the last week.

For context - the Nasdaq has been trading sideways for almost 6 months - driven by sideways actions in names like Nvidia (the key driver of it all)

The Japanese trade remains the US AI trade, almost 1:1:

Bessent knows this, which is why they keep pushing to weaken the Yen. When this finally stops working, the AI trade is going to be in for major pain.

Data Center Update

Available this weekend in our ‘Data Center Update - February Pt. 1 Tomorrow

As we get settled back into our cadence now, stay tuned for all of our data deep dives, research, portfolio strategy, and more

Coverage this Weekend:

• Macro Data Review from the Week

• A Fresh Look at the Hotel Sector

• Air Travel Continues to Soften

• Volatility - Here There & Everywhere

• A Look at our Global Bubble Gauges

• Portfolio Commentary & Strategy Update

• Data Center Update - February Pt. 1

MacroEdge Portfolio Strategy Update - February 6, 2026 (@SixFinance, Head of Research)

From a portfolio standpoint, as I expected, the space positions took further large drawdown into the beginning of the week, and on Tuesday morning,

(continued below: our portfolio strategy update and commentary)