6/23 Weekly Report: Summer Real Estate Slowdown, Youth Stop Working, Vision Update, and More
In this weekly report - Don, John, and Six do a deep dive on the critical real estate, employment, and equity trends.
Summer Real Estate Slowdown and Global Easing Update (@DonMiami3, MacroEdge Chief Economist)
Good Sunday evening everyone,
We are now officially in the Summer swing - or what we’re calling the ‘Summer lull’ - which certainly doesn’t mean we’re lacking for interesting or important data. The markets continue to rally in the United States while slowing down globally - particularly in Canada, Europe, and Japan. We expect that rate cuts from the Fed were pushed further back based on the Bank of England’s decision to kick cuts back at least another month. Both European and American elections are looming which may contribute to central bank caution around making abrupt policy moves before these elections occur. In the United States - the likely inflection point for surprises will likely arise after the Fed begins to lower its policy rate - which we think will now be in September or later and will act as a signal that they are acknowledging a significantly weaker labor market.
The broader macro picture remains complicated and mixed with some data remaining more resilient than others. This is in the context of a slower labor market with fewer job openings (by the millions) and rising unemployment in many states and nationally. This evening I focused on some of the latest youth employment/unemployment data which highlights similar trends to the larger aggregate data. We’ll also dive into the latest trends in the real estate and construction updates as well as briefly discuss where global central banks stand in their current policy positions.
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