5/18 Weekly Macro Note: Downgrade Sends Yields 'Upgrading', Japan's Greece Moment, Real Estate Data, and More

In this Weekly Macro Note - we explore the downgrade from Moody's further, long ends blowing out in the US & Japan, Japan's Greece Moment, RE Data, retail speculation, and more.

Good Sunday evening MacroEdge Readers & Community (from PST),

This evening we’ll focus on what we outlined - with the exception of the Vision Note - which will be available on Wednesday evening as we digest the market moves of the first half of the week and see how things go with yields, bonds, and more. We’re seeing the impacts of both troubles out of Japan in their bond market again - with the long-end (40Y) pushing record highs - and the Japanese Prime Minister calling Japan’s situation worse than Greece - in a reference to the Greece meltdown of the GFC-era. Gold prices have responded positively to the uncertainty - advancing over a percent. With all of the fiscal interventions since the April lows - we should be cautious about taking overnight moves as full signal and/or confirmation - but the combination of overbought conditions and valuations back to their February levels - there’s a lot to watch out for in signs that the ‘return to normal’ may not end up very normal after all. We’ll keep the intro brief for the evening given the time of this release and dive into the data below - including from the housing sector, Japan, a look at macro internals, and more.

Let’s ‘return to normal’...

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Macro Data This Week:

It’s a quiet week for macro data this week.

Wednesday: Crude inventories

Thursday: Existing home sales, Japanese Inflation Rate YoY

Friday: New home sales

Also a quiet weak for earnings - with a few smaller players reporting, but also Home Depot…

Housing Data Review (Starts, Active Construction, and More):

Permits and starts have continued to slow, but not enough to break construction activity - and/or construction employment.