4/27 Weekly Macro Note: Borrowing Time for a Slower Descent on K2, Macro Data, Technicals, Market Rollover Watch

In this Weekly Macro Note - we dive into everything and anything on the macro data side of things, tariff and shipping impacts, technicals, a market rollover watch, & much more.

Borrowing Time for a Slower Descent on K2 (@DonMiami3, MacroEdge Chief Economist)

Good Sunday evening, MacroEdge Readers & Community,

This Sunday evening, we’re going to cover the busy week ahead as we dive into the hard-hitting trends moving markets and cut through the noise of the past week — which, in my (and our) opinion, was just that: noise. Markets managed to stage a relief rally across asset classes — from cryptocurrencies to global equity markets (U.S. tech, etc.) — as optimism grew around tariffs and trade deals.

What the over-optimistic crowd and speculative retail gamblers seem to be ignoring is the fact that we still haven’t felt the lagged effects of the effective embargo we have on China — and vice versa. While that is one element of the story (outlined below with data from Apollo), we’ve been discussing it for several weeks now.

I am curious to see how this week shapes out, as we evaluate the broader move in the context of the weekly breakdown (back in February/March) to this present bounce, which has violently swung sentiment back toward “nothing is going wrong, markets are fantastic,” etc. Focusing on short-term moves ignores the broader trend that I believe we entered two months ago when the breakdown began.

Below, we discuss the single outlier instance when multiple expansion continued from valuations this extreme (1998), a case that is being highlighted — to an extreme degree — by the “Head of Macro” crowd, Detrick, Lee, and other overfitters.

Let’s dive into the data.

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Macro Data This Week

> Major earnings week for MAGS 

> Monday: Dallas Fed Mfg Index, Conference Board Indicators 

> Tuesday: JOLTS, Inventories, JOLTS, Home Prices

> Wednesday: ADP Employment, Chicago PMI, Home Sales Data, BoJ Interest Rate Decision 

> Thursday: ISM Mfg, Japan Bond & Employment Data

> Friday: Nonfarm Payrolls, Factory Orders 

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