2/26 MacroEdge Weekly Report: Warm Weather w/Frosty Labor Market, a Chinese Market Update from Milt, CRE and Data from Six and Joseph
This week - catch a guest appearance from our friend Milt, a deep dive into the economy and CRE with Six and Joe, and labor market data from Don.
Warm Weather and Frosty Labor Market (@DonMiami3, MacroEdge Chief Economist)
Happy Sunday to everyone -
Great piece in store for this evening so if you’re somewhere warm break out your favorite warm-weather cocktail or warm drink of choice if you’re still in the chills.
We’re closing out Sunday on an absolutely beautiful day here - enjoying the view from my office and got some important data to talk about for the week(s) and months ahead. I spoke on the ‘MF’ = multi-family situation in our Friday evening Redeye piece with John and Awsumb (that can be found here: https://macroedge.substack.com/p/redeye-2-bourbon-and-data-with-don).
As we wait for the team on the backend to continue to develop out Ozone V2 for everyone - we will now begin posting all weekly reports to our Substack as well (in addition to to the client portal and your emails). This means you will be able to access the weekly report from your Substack application until our own native mobile interface is complete, where you will able to access weekly reports within the Ozone Engine. Monthly labor market reports will begin for March data (so they will be available in April).
If you haven’t joined legacy Ozone yet for access to our current data dashboard, weekly reports, and the new labor market report, you can do so here (through our website, directly) here (via Substack)... Here’s a sneak peak at the updated Ozone Dashboard:
Today I want to turn our attention back to the unemployment data and where things are likely to finish off the quarter at (today marks 5 quarters from the inversion of the 10 year-3 month curve that inverted for its first full-month back in November). With unemployment rising in several states - I would be surprised to not see a tick-up in unemployment for February. Unemployment is noticeably rising in California, Montana, New York) and elsewhere which should contribute to this tick-up. The only thing preventing this would be a roll-over of unemployment in those states, but we’re seeing sustained job cuts as well as an elevated continuing claims level from our Index=100.
Current job cuts stand at nearly 50,000 for the month, which is a decrease on a year-over-year basis when comparing MacroEdge data to Challenger’s, but we’re still holding onto our 62,500 estimate for the month. For March, we anticipate that we see in increase in job cuts (@J77324 - our WARN tracker) has done a great job explaining why this is in many of his threads on X. We’re also pleased to have another job cut data expert onboard with Ray, who is a software engineer by day. This will expand the scope of our data sources.
