2/17 Weekly Macro Note: Lonely at the Top? Not in 2025

We dive into the latest employment and inflation trends, and discuss retail investors increasingly going 'all-in' on markets. On Wednesday we'll discuss markets and gold, along w/FOMC minutes...

Good Monday Evening MacroEdge Readers and Community,

This evening we’ll be diving into our outlook for the remainder of February, which as a short month and with this holiday right in the middle, is not a long period. The employment equation has re-entered the discussion in the last few days as job cuts have surged - both in the private and public sector - and Trump’s latest move to combat a rise in the CPI may be through tens of thousands of public sector layoffs. With how federal government employment is structured - the low-hanging ‘probationary’ employees have been easy targets to axe - and the axe has fallen on them heavily. While we should note that the MacroEdge Job Cuts Tracker will be impacted heavily by these ‘announced’ government layoffs this month - it will still impact the total federal government employment picture to a great degree. Given that many of the jobs in 2024 came from the government itself, or through private proxies in sectors like healthcare admin/education - it wouldn’t be surprising to see government employment begin falling through 2025, which will weigh on headline payroll growth.

Equities continue to advance higher, while cryptocurrencies have continued a more sideways trend over the last few months. This week we will get the FOMC minutes and other macro data that we’ll cover below, that remain worthy of keeping an eye on. As the Trump Risk Matrix has reset itself to neutral - risks tilt on where employment and inflation go from here - and whether or not the 10Y has found a new local top - or if it continues to advance towards a more concerning >4.8% level. Oh, and Australia lowered rates for the first time in 4 years this evening (American time) so that’s their first cut in 4 years. Let’s dive in.

The next Vision Report will be on Wednesday evening with Six and myself.

Important Macro Calendar for the Week

• Canadian Inflation Data

• UK Inflation Data

• Housing Data (USA)

• FOMC Minutes

• Japanese Inflation Data

• UMich Inflation Expectations

• Walmart Earnings