Good Sunday evening MacroEdge Readers & Community,

It’s nice to be back for another Weekly Macro Note, which will include the Macro Week Ahead, a discussion on our partnership with TREX, a technicals overview, and a look at our ‘Global Bubble Gauge’. We’ll also discuss how we continue to find opportunities in inflation as price pressures mount across the economy, and Six will provide a Portfolio Strategy Update.

MacroEdge Portfolio Strategy will be available in late June or July 2026, and will include all of our active portfolio strategies in one place.

Subscribe now

On Wednesday, I depart for several locations in Texas for our first sector coverage in our ‘On the Ground’ series. Beyond excited to begin collecting findings in the agriculture sector, and our three focus areas for the trip should give us all (including me) a very interesting context and background to the entire ag situation. There are a lot, lot, lot of clickbait headlines and titles swirling around in the press and on X right now - so we’re going to actually discover what’s real, and what’s not. By connecting with farmers and people at the source directly, we hope to uncover portfolio strategy opportunities… the movement in the soft commodities (and fertilizer) in recent days gives us a nice place to pull the trigger from if the opportunity is actually there, and we’ll know much more after the coming week of discussions, data collection, and anecdotes. If we find horizontal trades not directly in the three major areas we’re targeting, equally as positive in my mind.

In the futures open, the markets remain largely muted, there were a few headlines - notably the launch of ‘Project Freedom’, which aims to help ships navigate the Strait of Hormuz amidst the latest targetings by IRGC assets. We’re approaching 2 months of the Strait of Hormuz being almost completely closed - and the ramifications from that are going to be enormous, even though we aren’t feeling the full force of the storm at the current moment. In the oil markets, spot WTI is roughly flat after an initial sell-off, and continues to look incredibly constructive. In the West, there are few signs of demand destruction at this price level, and I remain net bullish on the sector with WTI prices this high. At $100/bbl - the amount of FCF machines is immense, and the tailwinds continue to blow in the favor of these companies the longer prices stay higher. It’s going to take a couple of months at minimum just for traffic flows to get to half of their former levels in the Strait - and that’s not an event I anticipate occurring this week. Inflation for the time being remains net positive for speculation and equities - and there remains a relatively narrow choice palette for investors to hedge against inflation (especially as real estate price gains continue to slow).

This week, we’ve got markets closed in Japan for a few days, and in the US, more macro data that is going to continue to paint a very mixed picture. I continue to observe the energy data on both the inventory and frac front to see if there’s any additional activity happening there. Inventories are going to continue to plummet in the US as we’ve ramped exports up to all-time highs, and the SPR is likely to be at all-time low levels in the next 3 months. Earnings this week are reserved for the sub-$250 billion market cap companies, and we’re going to continue to see markets revolve largely around the oil/commodity/inflation picture & headline-induced volatility.

Oil working on the ‘right’ handle to the cup…

Expect the ‘crash up’ to continue as the Fed balance sheet expansion ramps up, and little is done to combat CPI from running at a 4-5% clip on a YoY basis.

Our team appreciates your support during our 24/7 coverage of the events in the Middle East and so much more. If you haven’t yet subscribed to Ozone, you are missing out on all of our research, data, portfolio strategy, (colorful) commentary, and so much more, upgrade below:

Elevate to Ozone

The Macro Week Ahead

This week is another major earnings week, and there’s some macro data we’ll also cover as the week progresses. Friday, we’ll get employment data, but I think the CPI data for April is going to be a lot more interesting than the employment data.

• Monday: Factory Orders (US),

• Tuesday: JOLTS (US), Bank of Australia Rate Decision

• Wednesday: ADP Employment (US), EIA Oil Inventory (US)

• Thursday: n/a

• Friday: Average Cash Earnings (JP), Nonfarm Payrolls (US)

For earnings of companies >250 billion market cap: n/a

TREX Oil and Gas Partnership Discussion

On Tuesday evening, we’ll have an update on our exciting partnership that is developing with TREX.

Portfolio Strategy - Arriving June/July 2026

MacroEdge Portfolio Strategy, led by Six, will be available late June or July 2026. We’re already experimenting with this offering through two core portfolio strategies you’ve likely been seeing the last few weeks - and this offering is only going to continue to take a more solid shape over the next couple of months:

Technicals Overview - Global Bubble Gauges

In looking at the latest update to our ‘Global Bubble Gauges’ - the pro-inflation and asset melt-up regime continues in this historic equity bubble. Our ‘Global Bubble Gauge’ consists of the Nikkei, KOSPI, IBEX, and TSX with a weighting by market cap in USD terms. None of the indices are signalling major red flags at the current time. At the individual index level, the TSX is lagging now, and in the crypto world (another good liquidity proxy - Bitcoin has ticked above $80,000 again). We’re likely witnessing a 200dma test, and nothing more for the time being.

In Japan, markers are on holiday for the first three days of the week.

For the TSX - we’ve yet to see the index make a new high since February:

Spain - still no new high - but not far from one (IBEX):

Korea’s KOSPI is up another 5% and continues a parabolic meltup as their currency weakens to near record levels vs the dollar.

The index has more than tripled since 2023.

While I prefer the IBEX as our best proxy and signal for the Nasdaq and other high-beta indices globally - our basket provides us with useful signal as to when we can expect things to finally roll over more broadly around the globe - and for the time being, the picture is mixed as Korea and Japan continue to ‘crash up’ while gains in Spain and Canada have slowed for the time being.

Subscribe now

Finding Opportunities in Inflation

Historically, and specifically during the 2021-2022 cycle, the strongest equity opportunities are found in sectors with high pricing power and direct commodity exposure:

• Energy (The Scarcity Hedge): Oil and gas firms are the primary beneficiaries of supply-side inflation. As energy prices drive the PPI higher, these firms see immediate revenue expansion.

• Defensive Value (Consumer Staples & Utilities): Companies providing non-discretionary goods (food, power) can pass through cost increases to consumers with minimal demand destruction.

• Materials: Miners and chemical producers benefit as the nominal value of hard industrial commodities (Copper, Aluminum) surges.

• Short-Duration Cash Flows (Value over Growth): High inflation forces central banks to raise interest rates, which increases the discount rate on future earnings. This devalues “Growth” stocks (whose value is in the distant future) and favors “Value” stocks with current, stable cash flows.

• Real Asset Exposure: Exposure to the underlying real assets like farmland, oil and gas assets, mines, and more, which are all beginning to outperform again

For commodity performance by type:

(Continued below: Finding Opportunities in Inflation Continued, Report Schedule for the Week, Portfolio Strategy Update and Commentary - Six)…

Subscribe now

Read more

Good Saturday evening MacroEdge Readers & Community,

It’s nice to join you on this Saturday, back from the PST. I will be heading to the Texas Panhandle with Six later in the coming week as we launch our ‘On the Ground’ series - covering agriculture, specifically in the corn, wheat, and fertilizer segments. While we’ve discussed the ‘why’ many times in the last week, and it appears that a major commodity price increase is underway across the board, from food, to metals, to energy inputs, and much more.

We are also busy in the escrow process of a deal we’ve closed on in North Dakota - and I will have more exciting updates on this front as the month of May progresses. This is just the beginning of our expansion into real asset ownership as a firm, and a core component of the research we put out is actually backing it up with our portfolio decisions. The opportunity in the next 5 years on the ‘structural shortage’ front in real assets is one of the best setups that we’ve ever seen - especially given the fact that we have governments around the globe that will do whatever it takes to continue stimulating demand through aggressive borrowing and printing. Tomorrow I will briefly outline the timeline on our TREX partnership & Portfolio Strategy rollout - which will come in the early to mid-summer.

On the labor front, the labor market remained soft in April. Job creation will show moderate to slow growth in the headline numbers, and job cuts were again quite significant. The environment for new grads remains mostly poor, but we’re starting to see more layoffs impact the near-retirement age class, as they usually carry the largest cost burden for organizations.

MacroEdge Job Cuts Tracker - through April 2026

Today, I am going to keep it quite brief as we dive into the latest inflation figures, provide a MacroEdge energy portfolio strategy update, and discuss the Spirit Airlines failure.

Not yet a MacroEdge Ozone subscriber? Get all of our reports, data, research, portfolio strategy, and much more below:

Upgrade to Ozone

… don’t forget the colorful commentary too…

Inflationary Pressures Continue to Mount

One of the most concerning signals that cannot be ignored is the alarm bells on the inflationary front that are sounding. Similarly to 2021, these are being ignored in the excitement of the broader high beta assets ‘crashing up’ on a daily basis - but everything from food prices, to airline ticket prices, fuel prices, and more are on the move higher. While real estate prices aren’t participating on the aggregate - remaining largely flat over the last year - they’re already prohibitive from a demand perspective.

Domestic Air Carrier - PPI

ISM Prices Paid v CPI

DBA - Invesco Ag Fund

5 & 10-year breakevens are also breaking out to higher levels (so are yields for those paying attention to the 2, 10, and 30-year yields)...

Foreign yields continue to provide a nice signal for direction for where I think we’re heading on the inflation front… The Fed will continue to hold rates as we navigate the energy shock… at least for the time being. (yes, they could hike too).

Energy Portfolio Strategy Update

Since inception, (February 25, 2026), the MacroEdge energy portfolio strategy is up 25.83%. We made some frequent adjustments to the strategy through March, but are keeping things in line with our high-torque outlook for the sector.

(Continued below: MacroEdge Energy Portfolio Strategy Update, Spirit Airlines Failure - Evidence of a new ‘Gilded Age’?, Weekly Macro Note Preview)…

Subscribe now

Read more

Good Thursday evening MacroEdge Readers & Community,

This evening, we’re going to kick things off with Part 1 of our ‘On the Ground’ series - beginning with the agricultural sector. A few weeks ago, I outlined how and why we were kicking off the ‘On the Ground’ series, which will act as a natural extension of much of the incredible data we have already been collecting directly from industry experts and participants. Prior to the beginning of the Iran War, we began a quasi version of this series in visiting the Permian Basin, and this same process of collecting, understanding, sharing, and executing will continue as the ‘On the Ground’ series is kicked off.

Next week, I will be visiting the Texas Panhandle with Six to begin the data collection process in the ag sector focus areas that we’ve identified - corn, wheat, and fertilizer. These inputs and staples are critical signals for both ag and broader economic price pressures more broadly - and price pressures here tend to lag other early-inflation warning signals. With fuel and petroleum-associated products soaring, there is still a massive disconnect between these staples and oil (yes, the same goes for natural gas right now)...

Subscribe now

In the macro data picture for the week, the main trend continues to be one of increasing price pressures. With gas and diesel prices pushing to cycle highs (and now in many states - all-time highs) - price pressures are going to continue pushing higher. The deflationista camp continues to sing a loud tune about the looming price compression - but we are still not there yet. While I do believe that the cure to high prices is high prices, we are living in a weird macro-period where the government is now reliant on perpetually pumping assets higher to keep the music playing. This artificially stimulated demand from a small percentage of the population is keeping the party for now, and this will continue until there is the next ‘shock’ event that halts the equity meltup in its tracks. For now, the price environment is looking a lot like 2021 for the time being, and inflation is still not in a red flag area for asset prices (it may actually be a tailwind right now) being way above the 2% target, but not high enough to dent demand.

PPI/CPI usually have a 1-2q lag to the leading regional Fed signals:

Not yet a MacroEdge subscriber? Get Ozone below and access all of our research, data, portfolio strategy, and more:

Upgrade to Ozone

On the Ground for Ag Part 1 - Time for Amarillo

Next week, we will be hitting the road to the Texas Panhandle for Part 1 of our ‘On the Ground series - focusing on corn, wheat, and fertilizer. There is a wide gap between the performance of these lagging critical food staples and input costs and where broader price pressures have trended. Our goal is to uncover if there is an opportunity here in the trade, highlight the risk of potential shortages, discuss the Strait of Hormuz impact, and unearth inflationary impulses directly from the operators. Beyond this, we’re also looking at things like crop yield, and figuring out how the farmers and operators feel about the situation, right from the ground-level.

A look at the equal weighting of wheat, corn, and urea, below:

FOMC Recap

As expected, we saw no rate cut in the FOMC meeting. While this was Powell’s final meeting as Chair, it appears he is going to stay on as a Fed Governor for some time, while an investigation into him & the Fed continues to play out. He’s likely waiting out a political regime change in the midterm environment to give him clearance to finally bail. While I could start a long rant about Powell and his abject failure (failure after failure) to control and keep price levels in check in the United States, it’s not worth giving him the light of day. The fact that we’ve propelled the Central Bank Chair to celebrity status is one of the more bizarre monetary phenomena in the modern era. Powell leaves with inflation running hot, an economy more reliant than ever on money printing, and asset bubble after asset bubble across the board. The ‘inflation is transitory’ line will live in infamy - and low headline unemployment with structural demographic deficits are not enough reason to give Powell a pass for his many failures as Fed chair. The list goes on and on, but I know that John will touch on some of these below.

Below, we outline some of the more important takeaways from the meeting:

Policy Stasis Amid Geopolitical Firestorm: The Committee voted to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% for the third consecutive meeting. Chair Powell explicitly cited the “prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz” and the ongoing conflict in Iran as the primary drivers of extreme economic uncertainty, effectively freezing any plans for further rate cuts in the immediate term.

The “Quad-Dissent” Fracture: The meeting saw four dissenting votes, the highest total since 1992, signaling a total breakdown of committee consensus. While Governor Stephen Miran favored a 25bps cut to mitigate slowing GDP, three hawkish members (Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan) opposed the statement’s “easing bias,” warning that the 3.3% headline inflation spike in March may necessitate a return to rate hikes.

The “Back Side” Energy Mandate: During his final press conference, Powell stated that the oil-driven inflation shock (which saw Brent crude hit $130/bbl) has likely not peaked. He signaled that the Fed will remain in “wait-and-see” mode until they can identify the “back side” of the supply impairment, emphasizing that surging gas prices are now acting as a direct tax on disposable income and consumption.

Neutral Rate Re-Rating: Market participants noted a hawkish shift in the “longer-run” anchor, which moved upward to 3.0%. This indicates a collective belief among policymakers that the era of low-cost capital is over, as structural supply-side constraints and AI-driven productivity gains redefine the neutral rate in a high-intensity conflict environment.

The Warsh Transition: This was Jerome Powell’s final meeting as Chair (his tenure concludes May 15). Incoming Chair Kevin Warsh is expected to inherit an increasingly divided Fed and is already signaling a framework shift toward “price stability dominance” and new inflation metrics that account for the 13.5 MBPD supply deficit.

I continue to believe that the 2-year, and 10-year, and foreign yield curves are signaling a return to an inflationary regime:

The 2Y is now 50bp off of the lows, and even the long-end of the curve looks quite concerning:

Subscribe now

(Continued below: FOMC Recap, Airline Bailouts, Agentic Awakening + Portfolio Strategy Update and Commentary - Six, Fed History - John)…

Not yet a MacroEdge Ozone subscriber? Get access below:

Read more

Good Tuesday evening MacroEdge Readers & Community,

This evening we will have a short ‘War Note’ update - with the next update this week coming on Thursday, post-FOMC. Today was a relatively uneventful day in markets, with the Dow closing flat on the day, and momentum tech seeing the largest downside. The commodity space (some of which we’ll discuss below) saw its largest upside in a while - as oil moved higher, alongside ag commods like wheat, corn, and canola. The broad direction for the entire agricultural sector continues to be up (and again to the right), and there is still a large mispricing from the 2021-2022 move if we are repeating something similar. With the Strait of Hormuz closure going on 60 days now, we simply cannot wrap our heads around the magnitude of the impact, and the lag, all of which will continue to be observed as we head into the summer and beyond.

In Australia, which we use to monitor yield action, inflation came in at almost 5% y/y - a huge spike and a warning sign for other developed countries of what is to come if this situation continues. While we place a critical emphasis (national security risk) on our equity markets here in the United States in 2026, the lower 70-80% in the ‘i-shaped’ economy continues to get bulldozed by pro-inflation policy, which is a continuation of rising nominal asset prices over everything else. The current regime may be unsustainable from a market standpoint - but there are plenty of other instances that I am even more wary of that we are watching our leaders ‘sleepwalk’ us right into… This explains a core reason for my belief that the Fed should be thinking about hiking soon rather than holding a pause - if the rise in commodity prices continues to accelerate. While the best solution for commodity prices is high commodity prices, we live in a society devoid of and terrified of price discovery, so things continue to spiral upwards.

These are not deflationary signals:

The resulting responses to higher prices are where price discovery can actually take place…

This evening we’re going to briefly dive into the ag reality and our discovery - with Part I of the ‘On the Ground’ Report Series coming on Thursday evening, or later over the weekend. We are preparing to head to West Texas for multiple days of data collection, and we will be sharing our findings and strategy through the ‘On the Ground’ report series. Additionally, we’ll also provide a brief update this evening on the energy portfolio strategy, the latest war updates, and more…

Not yet a MacroEdge Ozone subscriber? Upgrade today and get all of our research, data, commentary, portfolio strategy, and much more below:

Upgrade to Ozone

Agriculture Reality and Discovery - ‘On the Ground’ Report Series Introduction

In a week, we’ll be embarking on a 3-day data collection and discovery trip across wheat & corn country in the State of Texas. We’re going to be collecting input and anecdotes on everything from pricing, to fertilizer costs, to other input costs, the harvest season, risks, potential upside, and much more. This is going to be a unique opportunity for us to again pull the data directly from the ground and output our findings and our opinions on whether or not additional upside is on the horizon. Our focus is going to be primarily on corn, wheat, and fertilizer (while also looking at other factors like Urea and PPI), and how these elements are factoring into the outputs. Purely from a commodity pricing standpoint, there is a ton of room in this basket for things to move higher if we are seeing a repeat of a 2008 or 2021 style commodity inflationary scenario. The food inputs (and food commodities) are typically the last to participate in the rally, and then a more vertical move.

Subscribe now

Looking at the commodities individually, you can see how far off the 2021 highs they still are… They don’t even need to repeat the exact scenario to see substantial upside as the Strait of Hormuz closure and blockade remains ongoing:

Corn

Wheat

Urea/Fertilizer (Gulf FOB):

(Continued below → Ag Reality and Discovery, our FOMC Preview, the latest war updates, schedule for the week, energy strategy note, and much more)…

Subscribe now

Read more

Good Sunday evening MacroEdge Readers and Community,

We’re continuing to spool things up after a packed week last week put us behind on the report front. There’s not a lot of information to report from last night to this evening, other than we’re going to hear from the President tomorrow on another potential Iran proposal being discussed. For the time being, it doesn’t look like it’s going to be much, though we’ll have to wait and actually watch the Strait of Hormuz data as it continues to come in. There’s been no change to tanker or ship traffic over the past 24 hours, and the situation continues to result in an accumulating shortage of critical commodities across the board. From oil to distillates, fertilizer, urea, crops, and more - this accumulation is only building and will operate with a lag, which is something that we outlined yesterday evening. Underlying price pressures continue to mount - and gauges like prices paid are going to continue to move higher. Barak had another fake headline from tonight - talking about some ‘concessions’ package which will be addressed by the President from the Situation Room tomorrow. Anything posted from that ‘source’ should be taken with a grain of salt, as it continues to look more likely that the US is likely to strike when Iran gives up ground or falls asleep.

The Administration continues to lean into boosting nominal asset prices - and the climb that we’re seeing now is something out of 99, the KOSPI of a few months ago, and Japan in the late 80s. These unprecedented times are causing us to run out of instances and comparisons - and the rate at which things are climbing continues to accelerate. There are a lot of explanations being offered for why equity markets have essentially shifted to the ‘vertical only’ move, with the Nasdaq rising over 20% in a matter of weeks, and semiconductors over 40% MTD - a move only rivaled by 2000. The simplest explanation is that we continue to find ourselves in one of the most pro nominal asset price regimes that we’ve ever seen, which is unlikely to end until the Strait of Hormuz situation actually begins to cause demand destruction (if at all during the ‘big print’). For the time being, we have the Treasury close to a form of YCC to control the 10-30Y yields, and I do not think that Warsh is going to be hawkish in any way, shape, or form.

Next up… airline bailouts! We’ll have more on this later in the week as Frontier, Avelo, and Spirit are now requesting to be nationalized.

Just look at the current expansion of the balance sheet since December, even as the Fed failed to hit its 2.0% CPI mandated target. Inflation is now moving higher, and no one seems to care as nominal asset and price levels continue to ‘crash up’.

This situation is creating a perceived ‘mirage’ - as most individual investors (of which now there are more than there ever have been) assume that rising nominal asset prices are an inherently positive thing. In the case of a crisis in countries throughout history, we’ve seen retail investors pile into equities as a sign of panic over things like inflation, economic calamity - you name it, and the list goes on. While assets are indeed the place to shield one’s wealth and value from destruction by those spending and printing the currency, positive is not a word that I would always apply to the situation. Instances like the below are hardly wealth creation signals:

I noted on X that I continue to seek out real income-producing assets in lieu of high beta technology speculation, and I will let the speculators continue to seek out those opportunities in exchange for owning the real underlying assets and companies - especially those in niche sectors that we’re all reliant on in this ‘era of scarcity’ for commodities, etc. I mentioned this on X today, and it’s a theme that I strongly believe in over the next 5-10 years.

This evening we are going to dive into the futures preview for the week, which has started off relatively quietly, highlight the FOMC outlook, discuss the physical shortage countdown from the Strait of Hormuz, take a refreshed look at the data center bubble, and highlight notable macro data from the past week. We wrap up with our report schedule for the week - and if you’re not yet a MacroEdge Ozone subscriber, you can get all of our research, data, reports, and more below:

Subscribe now

Futures Preview & FOMC Week Ahead

Futures are mostly green, with the Nasdaq leading, and the Dow lagging. The Nasdaq and Dow divergence is starting to become more noticeable - especially with the Transports & other sectors like real estate starting to lag the broader move in high-beta. Either the Industrials start to catch up, or this disconnect will widen and then correct in a violent way.

The events of the week:

On the FOMC front, it appears very unlikely that the Fed will reduce rates, with odds near zero. We’ll look for any signs of a hawkish pivot this week - but with the balance sheet expansion already underway, expect Powell to say something along the lines of ‘wait and see’ again. In Japan, we’re awaiting the next hike - though Bessent is clearly encouraging them to keep the Yen weak to allow global equity indices to continue surging through cheap borrowing of the yen.

… If anything, the Fed should be hiking right now, but we know that is not going to happen with the broader backdrop.

Not yet a MacroEdge Ozone subscriber? Upgrade below for the busy week ahead.

(Continued below → Physical Shortage Countdown, A Refreshed Look at the Data Center Bubble,

Subscribe now

Read more

Good Saturday evening MacroEdge Readers & Community,

I hope you have all had a fantastic past week and start your weekend. This past week has been a whirlwind, and I apologize for our brief downtime on the reports on our end. I will be making my way out of Mountain Time in the next few days and returning east to get things fired back up from the office. Over the last week, we’ve collected a lot of interesting data and are continuing to watch rapid evolutions in both markets and the economy. The trend of an ‘i-shaped’ economy has accelerated in recent weeks as we’ve seen the Nasdaq make an almost 20% move this month, while consumer confidence and current economic conditions, as measured by the University of Michigan, are near all-time lows.

The report this evening is going to be a nice laying of the foundation for us to kick back into high gear for the weeks and months ahead. We are back to our regular report schedule after the brief delay - and the full schedule for the week ahead will be available tomorrow evening.

The latest on the geopolitical front is one of a lot of noise. Things are pointing more toward a ‘re-arming’ on both sides at this point than any sort of off-ramp. The debacle of the last two days was one where Kushner & Witkoff were supposedly going to visit Pakistan to meet with the Iranian FM, but both parties backed out of actually meeting with each other, and things quickly fell apart. Right now, it appears that there is little to no communication at all between the two sides - and US military resources continue to be ‘surged’ into the region. Israel made new strikes on Southern Lebanon today, and it’s quite likely that we see things continue to flare up there as well for the next week or two. The exact timing of when a broader operation may resume is impossible to time, but some smart individuals that I talk to seem to think between now and May 15th are a potential window if things continue the way that they are. The Hormuz reality is one that is accumulating in its size and impact, and I don’t think people can wrap their head around how severe these impacts will be if it remains closed. While much of the globe has been able to ride through the first almost 2 months of the Hormuz closure without substantial impact, the bite is going to hit now, and especially so if/when Iran begins to curtail oil production.

Iran is now likely within a week of needing to shut-in some of their production capacity, so keep an eye on data related to this in the coming days, and we even saw them bring an old VLCC out of inventory in the past few days to act as an ‘offshore buffer’ for production capacity now that onshore storage is full.

Not yet a MacroEdge Ozone subscriber? Access Ozone and get all of our research, data, reports, and more, below:

Upgrade to Ozone

The Lagging Strait of Hormuz Impacts We Must Continue to Respect

One of the most obvious points to note is that the Strait of Hormuz closure is going to impact Asia, Oceania, and Europe the hardest (and before the United States). As tankers rush to the US to fill up and take product back overseas, we’re going to start seeing aggressive draws on onshore US refined products, which will tighten markets further… This is especially true since we’re not seeing any meaningful production or drilling activity spike right now. I expect that we start to see drilling activity move materially higher come Q3, but for the time being, producers that I speak to are not expecting others (or themselves) to ramp up activity in any meaningful way as everyone remains very cautious about ramping up capex with such a negative outlook on E&P companies from Washington DC. Politicians seem to think that exploration companies want to hold the bag and ramp up production while being targeted - but for the time being (and this is not going to last forever) - capex discipline is still in force.

While there are offsets to things like oil production through the North American valve (and SPR releases) for the time being - the same cannot be said for other commodities. One of the most obvious impacts outside of the oil and gas space from the Strait closure continuing is going to be food supplies and input costs in Urea and fertilizer. Fertilizer costs are starting to ramp back up:

And that will likely produce some sort of ‘farm bailout’ package in the months to come.

Continued below: The Lagging Strait of Hormuz impacts we must continue to respect, Energy Portfolio Strategy update, Portfolio Strategy update and commentary from Six)

Subscribe now

Read more

Good Sunday evening MacroEdge Readers & Community,

This evening, we’re going to explore some outlined topics from the past few days - and lay out the foundation for another packed week. It’s going to be an exciting week, as our ‘On the Ground’ report series kicks off this week, and we’ll be talking about the agricultural sector at large, while focusing specifically on wheat, corn, and fertilizer, which remain in very dynamic places.

While we continue to digest the paper v physical reality in oil futures, it appears that we’re moving toward an environment of scarcity in the coming days as it comes to critical materials and more coming out of the Strait of Hormuz… I posted a few of these items on my X earlier (@DonMiami3), and on Tuesday, we’ll take a look at the major physical supply chain impacts, as well as look at the timeline when we can expect things for these items to worsen. May, as one example, is when we likely start to see more significant pressures for energy supplies, and it’s likely that if this situation continues for another week or so, we’re going to see another globally coordinated SPR release, given what refiners are saying. Yes, having this situation going on, while markets have ‘crashed up’ is a totally bizarre dilemma, but we shouldn’t be mistaken that markets are ‘all-knowing’ in their forward-looking nature, this is actually not the case over the course of many shocks throughout history… especially one where we have so many different economic components at risk at the same time.

This evening, we’re going to briefly cover the futures open, and I would largely ignore these nowadays given the headline bombardment that will resume as soon as markets open ET. The most important thing to monitor this evening is to see if the gaps can actually hold (on the downside move in equities) and on the upside move in oil prices. If that were the case, oil can start to seek out higher price levels again, and we’ll see spot WTI move back to the $100+ level as a starting point. The volatility right now has been somewhat awful for energy equities in the past few weeks, but few can grasp what a tailwind this pricing environment is for both E&P and service companies in the sector. While I do not expect a meaningful increase in drilling activity until at least Q3, we can continue to seek out leading indicators that point to that - and in advance of such activity, we added the necessary exposure on this scarcity play. Global actors may be able to convince people through the futures curve of one narrative, but the reality is in the physical markets - and the situation is not going to resolve itself for (at minimum) months.

For the time being, we’re back to a place where the conflict is looking like it could escalate - and that is going to have economic ripple effects for months to come, some of which we talk about below and will cover more on Tuesday evening.

Not yet a MacroEdge Ozone subscriber? You’re missing out on our critical insights, data, research, portfolio strategy, and much more. We have incredible new reports, data, and offerings rolling out between now and the end of June, and Ozone members are the first to know. Upgrade below, and transform your insights:

Subscribe now

Futures Open / Week Ahead

Futures have opened in a mostly red way - down across the indices - with international indices also falling in Asia. Spot WTI is about $90/bbl, and a hold of this gap would be a critical next step in higher price action. Technically, oil is at a very key level with this overnight gap up, and we discuss next steps and pathways below. Again, a grain of salt until the day closes tomorrow, but mind the gap.

Week Ahead

• Monday: None Scheduled

• Tuesday: Retail Sales, Inventories

• Wednesday: EIA Petroleum Status Report

• Thursday: Flash PMIs, New Home Sales

• Friday: Durable Goods

No Fed/BoJ meetings until next week.

Tesla is the >$500bn market company reporting this week. With SpaceX on the horizon, watch for the reaction as a test of the market’s appetite for these IPOs amidst this massive speculative blow-off.

Early Inflation Warning Signals

Early inflation warning signals are mounting - and these take time to transmit all the way through the economy… recall 2021? There are many similar red lights flashing right now - and no one seems to care. The Fed is once again asleep at the wheel - pouring fuel on the fire through balance sheet expansion, and we sit here and wonder when they’re going to halt current policy (which looks quite unlikely). Look at copper prices as one of many warning signals:

Let’s take a look at L&G BCOM - All Commodities Index - which continues to explode higher, and we yelled from the rooftops about this from November & December of last year as a new base began to form and the Fed was talking all about disinflation and soft labor...:

(continued below: early inflation warning signals, technicals overview, weekly report overview, froth and friction - Portfolio Strategy note and commentary from Six, and the reality of freight from John)…

Subscribe now

Read more

Hopefully you have had a nice start to the weekend. This will be a brief Saturday Macro Note - since we’ve got a packed Weekly Macro Note arriving tomorrow evening.

This evening - we’re covering our ‘On the Ground’ series that kicks off this week - with background to the research we will be engaging in to cover the latest trends in the agricultural sector - focusing particularly on fertilizer costs, corn, and wheat. In two weekends, we will be embarking on a data collection trip in the Texas Panhandle, covering these key areas within ag.The goal is to collect data, discuss what/if the data is relevant, and ask more questions. This will allow us to determine if there is a broader opportunity in the sector, and a thematic portfolio strategy can be spooled up, backed up by our findings. While data on FRED and elsewhere is somewhat useful, when it comes to sectors like this that remain largely off the radar, there is no better way to find out the reality than to discover it first hand. We’ll meet with farmers, equipment suppliers, and more to find out the truth - from the ground… so welcome to ‘On the Ground’ and I hope you find this new series useful for your own decision making.

In brief update below - you’ll get a brief of the ‘On the Ground’ series that is kicking off as we dive into the back story of the ag sector - and especially in the areas we’re focusing on. Why should we care, even if we’re in an era of ‘nothing matters anymore’?... Well, the data we collect will explain the ‘why’.

Subscribe now

On the war front, the IRGC (Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps) appears to be playing good cop - bad cop with the diplomats in a guns v suits scenario. While Friday, we saw a bizarre pivot from diplomatic leaders, this was quickly shutdown by the military leaders as Trump announced that he would not be lifting the blockade on Iranian ports. Today, several boats were targeted by IRGC boats - and a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz is once again in effect. All boats in the Persian Gulf were ordered to drop anchor, and seize movement, and ship traffic will dip to near zero tomorrow - as Iranian tankers, shadow fleet boats, and GCC boats are not expected to move tomorrow. This case of escalation will likely require another rung higher from the US/Israel/GCC side - and it remains to be seen what that might be. It continues to look like we’re trending toward the direction of a resumption of conflict if diplomacy fails this week. That does not mean that we’re not going to have relentless fake headlines from ‘sources’ and a full out global government assault on oil prices (to combat demand destruction and inflation) - but the Strait closing again should be positive for oil prices. While front-month futures got taken to the woodshed yesterday, in the weekend CFDs market in Singapore - they have mostly erased the entire Friday selloff - which would imply a WTI price of about $90/bbl - more than a 10% move from the lows after the tweets and Truth posts yesterday morning. Oil volatility itself actually feel sharply last week - and if things go ‘hot’ in the next two to three weeks - I expect that we will see another ramp on that front. This price action is really not helpful for oil and gas firms themselves, but it’s part of navigating any war… hence ‘the fog’...

Not yet a MacroEdge Ozone subscriber? Get all of our research, data, strategy, and much more by upgrading below:

Subscribe now

In June - we’ll be unveiling Portfolio Strategy, The Macro Club, and we’re partnering with TREX Energy to empower smarter decision making within the oil and gas sector… Stay tuned for more!

Weekly Macro Note Preview:

• Futures Open / Week Ahead

• Early Inflation Warning Signals

• Technicals Overview

• The Energy Reality and Our Outlook, NatGas Dead?

• Portfolio Strategy Note & Commentary

• Weekly Report Schedule

Our ‘On the Ground’ ‘Series - A New Beginning for MacroEdge Ozone - A Reimagination of How We Collect Data

I am very pleased to announce the introduction of our ‘On the Ground’ series that will launch this week. In the upcoming week we provide the launchpad for our Agriculture series that will continue through May in multiple parts. The goal of our ‘On the Ground’ series is to build on how we collect data… While we’ve done a lot of research trips (ie: our trip to the Permian Basin as early signs of a potential war loomed) and much more - this is going to formalize the process and add surgical precision to how we translate and filter through anecdotes, and turn them into portfolio strategy.

While this will inevitably feed into what our Portfolio Strategy team utilizes come June when they launch and turn our data into direct strategy, all under one roof.

In two weekends, I will be embarking on another journey to the skies and beyond, as I head to Amarillo, TX with Six to collect the data for the agriculture series. We’re looking at corn, wheat, fertilizer, and more to collect, compile, report on, and construct strategy relevant to our findings. If there’s nothing of huge interest, we’ll outline that case too, but as the Strait remains closed

The ‘Strait’ Truth - Weekend Warfare Circus

As of Saturday night local time, the IRGC Navy (Sepah Navy) has declared the Strait of Hormuz totally closed until the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports is lifted. Iran reversed its brief Friday reopening (which was based on a Lebanon ceasefire) because the U.S. “pressed ahead” with the blockade. The IRGC warned that “no vessel should make any movement” and approaching the Strait will be considered “cooperation with the enemy” and targeted. Firing has already occurred: IRGC gunboats fired on a tanker, and a container vessel was hit by an unknown projectile. India has summoned the Iranian ambassador over firing on two India-flagged ships.

(Continued below -'The ‘Strait’ Truth - Weekend Warfare Circus - discussing the impact of the re-closure of the Strait, possible negotiations this week, a look at both sides of the coin with the conflict (war v peace), and what’s likely to happen next)…

Subscribe now

Read more

Good Friday evening MacroEdge Readers & Community,

This note will be brief, and more of a rant, as some of these Redeye Macro Notes tend to be.

We find ourselves in a tale as old as time in the modern US market - one where a lot of people are scratching their heads, but few know the reason or catalyst behind a new surge towards the ‘sky’... in this case, being all-time highs. The war is now well in the rear view mirror from a ‘priced-in’ standpoint, and AI + meme stocks screamed higher through the morning, with things cooling off just a bit into the close. The ‘garbage’ basket - one we track of profitless meme equities - has almost doubled in the last two weeks - signalling what a violent risk environment this is. The talk of shortages and risk from a Strait of Hormuz closure has abated as front-month crude contracts have dipped, and collective delusion has hit all-time highs while we see the economy bifurcate further… the end result? Something like this:

While I know that many of you will see this note when it arrives in the morning in the ET, I am still in the PST. I spent the afternoon going through a lot of charts and data to get a better grasp of the historic magnitude of the past two weeks - not only from a % gain standpoint - but also trying to digest what the future implications of the events that we’re seeing are going to be. To cover the price action for the day very briefly - early in the day, Iran’s FM tweeted out a version of a translated tweet highlighting that the Strait was *completely open*, which was subsequently shared by the US president and downstream beyond that into the press, on X, and beyond. Briefly, the markets took this as everything had been resolved - but for now, I think the lesson learned over the last 3 days of 100+ headlines a day is that it’s time to tune these out… as what we’re seeing is mostly bullshit, or an illusion, pardon my French.

I had a brief evening phone conversation with Six, our Head of Portfolio Strategy (fmr. Research), and we were quite surprised by both the past week, and a lot of the looks that we saw in charts. The most obvious (and somewhat humorous) being the massive runups that have been occurring in near-insolvent, and garbage companies like the MEME basket, and some of them look to have moves that are just starting - rather than ending, likely a consequence of the Fed beginning to ramp up liquidity through an expansion of its balance sheet, and continuation of short term issuance policies from the Treasury. I am seeing something similar in the cryptocurrency charts right now, which were largely ‘dead money’ after their October 2025 single-day disaster, which rendered a lot of coins effectively dead in the largest single day liquidation wipeout that had been seen in that sector in $ terms. The next critical junction is likely to be a meeting at the 200dma to decide if we’re going to see a more-2022 style scenario, or see the ‘Venezuelan’ (as I refer to it as) style scenario, where everything begins yet another crash up as the Fed continues to let inflation get far too hot.

Subscribe now

We are starting the warm-up to QE-5 at almost 123% GDP, a terrifying fact for those of us who understand the long-term implications of this policy (in things like birthrate collapse):

(Chart: @Econimica - CH on X)

… A note from CH:

The outcome continues to look one more of a developing nation by the day, and I may have to wheel back out a former favorite series that we had going years ago.

For energy equities - it remains relevant to continue monitoring the conflict (case and point being the morning story) - but I strongly recommend ignoring the minute-by-headlines - as many are made-up or part of a broader information warfare strategy on both sides. Because we have the pleasure (not really) of waiting until the next futures open, we can discuss the next update here on Sunday evening on this front. The setup, structurally, remains very positive for our energy strategy basket - even though short-term front-end manipulation is greatly impacting the sector from an investment standpoint.

In terms of this insane equity action - look to the next major IPOs: SpaceX, ChatGPT, Anthropic for our ‘topping signals’ - even Michael Burry noted today that the ‘needle top’ is quite rare - and even though we’ve seen it instances like 1990 Japan - this equity price action is much more violent, and much more backed by policymakers than we’ve seen in previous instances. I could also cover the blatant fraudulent trading taking place in markets now - in assets like CL - but I will leave those rants to my X feed.

While the FINRA Margin Debt story was likely a brief intermission head fake & ‘real macro’ data continues to point toward a very troubled 90% in the days, weeks, and even years to come, I am quite confident that we’re going to see these trends continue. As we highlighted last night in the Midweek Macro Note, the Fed’s liquidity cannon is once again back on.

In being a data-driven organization, it’s time to tune out the bullshit headlines, and continue to master our craft at delivering the precision data that matters, and how it translates into intelligent strategy, in this time of great noise.

Not yet a MacroEdge Ozone subscriber? Access Ozone below and get all of our research, data, strategy, and much more. There’s a lot that we’re rolling out between now and June - so don’t miss a beat.

Subscribe now

Mid-Month Employment Update

Employment this month is softening - as seen in job openings resuming a decline after a very brief reprieve:

While some may claim this is due to *AI* - there is structural weakness in the American labor market well beyond AI job displacement taking place at technology companies.

Month-to-date job cuts are sitting at about ~40,000 - highlighting that this will not be another slow month by any shape of the imagination. With the Administration looking to visa issuance to boost population figures, however, I think that we may see job growth in some of the lowest wage bands start to move higher.

I also would like to remind our readers of the shifting demographics and aging of the US workforce - this is likely to drive a structurally lower unemployment rate for the time being, as workers age out of the workforce in the thousands per day.

That is a lot, lot, lot of people that have to be subsidized.

MacroEdge Global Bubble Index

(Below: MacroEdge Global Bubble Index - a breakdown of the index, what it means, and what to look for in the next 3-6 months, a preview of the Saturday Macro Note - where we’ll look at first ‘On the Ground’ Report happening here in a few weeks, and also take a look at the preview for the Weekly Macro Note)…

Subscribe now

Read more

Good Thursday evening MacroEdge Readers & Community,

It’s been an interesting week thus far as the equity melt-up persisted through the close. Tomorrow could mark the longest winning streak for the Nasdaq in history (yes - lots of those ‘once in a lifetime every day’ recently). The market intervention is back on banshee mode and leading inflationary signals are starting to rear their head, which would be very ugly for the lower ‘i’ in the ‘i-shaped’ economy… As I say daily, we’re on a very bizarre pathway as a country - especially from a monetary policy standpoint - and are taking on different elements of South Africa, Venezuela, and Argentina in terms of different elements that I am seeing strung together into one piece. Wealth inequality will take another leg up and that may set up our next *monetary reset* which seems inevitable at this point if we faced anything like the 2021-2022 wave of inflation.

It’s been unbelievable to watch the collective delusion around the Strait of Hormuz closure and the impacts the situation is already having on the world economy. This is a pandemic-sized shock in terms of impact, with oil demand needing to go the same way that we saw from the pandemic to eventually get prices restored. With physical barrels hitting as high as $268/bbl in countries like Sri Lanka - and jet fuel pushing $198/bbl global average - these are at all-time high levels… but the question I am getting asked frequently in both calls and on X is whether or not this will reflect into the futures market, I undoubtedly think it will, barring any immediate economic shock. By pumping equity markets back to the highs, and with the Fed unleashing balance sheet expansion now as commodities rip, that will not sour demand in developing nations, and thus prices will have to go higher toward demand destruction levels in order for the market to find equilibrium. Here’s Urea prices as one example of this mounting commodity shock that is still one of the most obvious, given the fact that the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, and the 13mpbd of oil supply remains offline from the market:

As onshore inventories of crude stock in the US begin to draw down, I expect that is when we start to see the first ‘reality check’ signals and traders begin to take bigger risks. Right now, in this ceasefire on/off headline whiplash environment, large traders have stayed sidelined for risk of getting squeezed out by these interventions - though today marked the first time in about 2 weeks that we saw the market dampen the impact of the headlines and announcements.

I say this with a great sense of concern and urgency in that if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopen within the next 30 days, (and/if) things escalate further to something like a closure of the Bab-al-Mandab Strait - Global South economies are going to get hit by an economic and inflationary tsunami, and American consumers that aren’t seeking out safe havens in things like assets are going to be in for a very rude awakening. The reality is the reality, and right now, the reality of the Strait being closed this long is absolutely shocking… You cannot mess with the energy and food supply to this degree without grand consequences, regardless of flooding the system with additional liquidity to pump equities higher. With how controlled the futures market has been in crude, I expect that when they ‘let off the gas’ for interventions, it all might just happen quicker than we all expect.

With that being said, maybe it’s time I secure a flight to a secure island destination for the time being…

Not yet a MacroEdge Ozone subscriber? Get all of our research, data, reports, and much more below.

Subscribe now

‘On the Ground’ Series Begins on Saturday

Our new ‘On the Ground’ report series begins on Saturday. We are kicking off the first of the series with a background and introduction into our first target in a first of a four-part series under the ‘On the Ground’ reports - being the ag sector. As we continue to monitor and adjust positioning given the latest inflation impulses, it appears that we are once again on the verge of a move higher in inflation. Yes - commodities have rallied a lot thus far (just look at copper and oil) as one example - but there are plenty that still haven’t participated (ie: natural gas) and others that are critical to our food and input cost chain that we will be discussing in the first part of this series.

The real question we want to ask is: is it as bad as some of the stories say right now, and if so, how will it impact both inflation and the broader economy in the months to come? If not, is there still an opportunity to capitalize on, or should we focus on better, more opportune baskets that exist (like energy equities at $95/bbl).

Fed Liquidity Cannon: Activated

Fed balance sheet expansion is well underway and has accelerated rapidly in recent days. The status quo would tell us that the balance sheet is going to go considerably higher from here - and that looks to be the case if we continue to step on the inflation gas into this economy that will be unable to absorb another across-the-board increase in price levels, especially in the lower ‘i’ - 90%.

The impact of this is clear on commodities and equities, and the CPI relationship is relevant as well.

Fed balance sheet since last April, almost positive on the y/y readings now:

On the y/y view:

Fed balance sheet versus Bloomberg Commodity Index:

Continued below: Energy Discussion & Strategy Update, Preview of the Redeye & Weekend Reports, Lockout Rally v Reality from Six, and Wash - Winse - Repeat from John Galt

Not yet a MacroEdge Ozone subscriber? Upgrade below:

Subscribe now

Read more

Good Tuesday evening MacroEdge Readers and Community,

As promised, I am back with another Macro Note in the ‘War Note’ series to discuss the latest developments in the Israel-Iran war, which has seen so much noise over the last 72-96 hours that it’s hard to discern what is real and what is not. After the gap up in oil prices on Sunday evening in the futures session - that quickly reversed - and the past two days, we again entered a ‘melt-up’ mode, and we’re now 13.5% off of the lows on the Nasdaq:

The 200dma wasn’t just a magnet - it became the springboard for the move higher over the past few days, and the ‘TACO’ turned out to be the ceasefire, which enabled both oil prices and yields to dip. The interventions and talking up the market are now very unlikely to stop for some time, and we’ve reverted back to a similar regime to what we saw in April and May of 2025, when there were headline bombardments (made-up deals), and consistent press runs from Administration officials to keep market flows going. The only thing to break this situation (though it may accelerate these same interventions) is another move higher in WTI prices, which still looks quite possible given the physical market realities that we’ve discussed many times since late February.

Not yet a MacroEdge Ozone subscriber? Upgrade below and get all of our research, data, portfolio strategy, and more:

Subscribe now

TREX - Exploring Energy Opportunities with a Research First Focus

TREX Energy deploys disciplined capital across upstream, midstream, and downstream oil & gas assets, targeting superior risk-adjusted returns for institutional investors. By leveraging MacroEdge intelligence to identify high-yield mineral interests and Tier 1 inventory before the bit hits the ground, TREX bypasses traditional market inefficiencies. At TREX, we don’t just speculate on the tape; we own the rock.

Fill out a form below to learn more about the TREX Energy Fund and opportunities in the Permian & Williston Basins:

TREX Energy Fund I

*Available to accredited investors only

Latest War Updates -> What We Know is Real

The current 14-day ceasefire (agreed April 8) is set to expire on Wednesday, April 22. While there was hope for a 45-day extension, the collapse of the Islamabad talks (April 11-12) has delayed any timeline for a long-term deal. President Trump has signaled that talks could resume in Islamabad in the next 48 hours, but for now, the conflict is operating on a one-week “truce fuse.”

As of today, there are no confirmed direct talks between Washington and Tehran. Following the walkout of the U.S. delegation on Sunday, communication has shifted to intermediaries. VP JD Vance noted the primary sticking point remains Iran’s refusal to dismantle its nuclear program entirely. However, Pakistani mediators (Field Marshal Asim Munir) are aggressively pushing for a restart before the April 22 deadline.

In a significant diplomatic pivot, Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosted the first direct talks in decades between Israeli and Lebanese delegations in Washington, DC today. The two countries agreed to “launch direct negotiations” aimed at stabilizing the northern front. However, a full ceasefire in Lebanon was not achieved; Israel continues military operations in southern Lebanon (specifically Bint Jbeil) to disarm Hezbollah, while Lebanon prioritizes an immediate cessation of strikes.

The U.S. Navy’s blockade of Iranian ports is in its second day (enforcement began Monday, April 13 at 10 a.m. EDT). It specifically targets vessels entering or exiting Iranian ports, while allowing non-sanctioned tankers (e.g., from Saudi, UAE) to transit under U.S. escort. While Trump claimed 34 ships passed through yesterday, overall traffic remains at roughly 10% of pre-war levels. Iran has threatened retaliation against all Gulf ports in response to this “maritime piracy.” Thus far, there have been between 8 to 10 ships intercepted after they passed through the Strait and were en route out to sea.

Our current Global Oil Supply Impairment estimate stands at 13.5 mbpd (stabilized for the time being). This represents a structural deficit of ~13.5% of total global supply, a baseline that we expect to remain fixed as long as the U.S. Navy and the IRGC maintain competing “selective passage” protocols in the Strait. The IEA today mentioned as high as 20%, though our figure is more accurate based on mapped flows.

Energy Update: Holding The Range or TACO Triumph

Our portfolio strategy has dipped lower with the latest price action in WTI since Monday, taking performance since basket inception to about 9% (more in-depth update) - this pricing environment remains extremely positive for our basket, and I expect that we may concentrate things further for our 12+ month target hold period for this basket. On Thursday evening, I will have a more extensive update regarding our basket. Right now, excess volatility and headlines are impairing individual equity performance, but a lot of these names are FCF machines as the cycle gets going. Keep an eye on frac spreads over the course of the spring and summer, which will be a tailwind for ACDC.

Not yet a MacroEdge Ozone subscriber? Subscribe below:

Subscribe now

Continued below: Energy Update, Breaking Down the PPI Report, Previewing the Midweek Macro Note

Read more

Good Sunday evening MacroEdge Readers and Community,

This evening - futures are off to an expected start - and largely in line with how weekend CFDs and other instruments like cryptocurrencies were trading when the news of a ‘no deal’ announcement was dropped by the Vice President. On top of that, the President announced this morning that the US Navy will begin enforcing a new blockade against all vessels that attempt to enter or exit the Strait of Hormuz. Given that the announcement was made for local time, which will take effect shortly, and we’ll have to see if that results in a further flare-up of tensions here as we begin a new week in the conflict. The Strait of Hormuz has now been closed for much longer than anyone expected, and traffic is at an absolute standstill - with no reported tankers leaving the Strait today since the announcement from Trump. The situation gets even more complicated on the insurance front, as insurance companies have no interest in writing policies given the current situation, so even if the Strait is ‘open’ at some point, it’s going to be up to the insurance providers to really decide when that is, and not yet governments on either side. Given that there will be a double blockade starting in the next few hours, I don’t think we need to worry about the insurance discussion yet.

Subscribe now

Additionally, we saw the Houthis test the waters (literally) this morning, running out a skiff to spook a container ship, and the UKMTO issued a warning about this event. Overall, futures are sort of in the ‘sweet spot’ point for now, panic announcements from the Administration - with the key two metrics being oil prices and yields… You can view the past intervention points when the 10Y reached interim peaks over the last year (such as with the tariff announcement), though things are now different with oil as high as it is. The inevitable outcome in a situation that’s being largely driven by oil prices is demand destruction - and even though I’ve heard a few economists cite the 2011-2014 period as a ‘sustainably high price’ - the economic backdrop was extremely different that the point coming out of the worst economic situation in a century - rather than the backdrop we find ourselves in today with assets still at an all-time high, inflation still running hot (3.3% annualized in the March CPI - likely to tick up to 3.7-4.0%, and retail investors piling in weekly at rates that have never previously been seen.

The right tail scenario to get to those demand destruction levels remains largely in play - though I do expect there to be more constant questionable announcements throughout the week on all sides, especially as we head into a… double blockade of some sort. If we see military action resume, the next likely escalation step on the part of the Iranians is a closure of the Bab Al-Mandab Strait in the Red Sea through their Yemeni proxies, and the escalation ladder again seems quite defined. This evening we’re going to cover the following:

• TREX, Partnering with MacroEdge Intelligence

• Macro Week Ahead

• Geopolitical Update - The Latest Details That Matter

• Data Center Situation Pt. 2

• Energy Portfolio Strategy Update

Not yet a MacroEdge Ozone subscriber? Upgrade below and get all of our research, reports, data, portfolio strategy, and much more below…:

Subscribe now

TREX, Partnering with MacroEdge Intelligence

We’re pleased to partner with TREX to identify opportunities in the oil and gas arena. As an overlooked and oftentimes hated asset class, we’re firmly committed to a key sector that operates as the backbone of both the US & global economies.

More information will be available on this partnership and our plans on 4/24 in the Redeye Macro Note.

If it sounds like we’re doing about 12 different things - that is not an inaccurate statement - my goal is also to keep it organized for you all, and in a dedicated report this week or next, we’re going to put everything out there on the Macro Research side - including with our partnership with TREX to make it clear.

Macro Week Ahead

This week kicks off the official Q1 earnings season, and we’ll get more inflation data following the recent energy price spikes. On the macro data side of things, it’s relatively quiet outside of PPI, so I expect that war news, headlines, and actions will continue to dominate market action, alongside oil. Though we’ve seen some decoupling between the SPX & CL, it likely comes back into play if oil starts to creep back into the higher ceiling intervention range (around $113-$120/bbl) currently, as that will put upward pressure on yields.

• Monday: Fedspeak, BoJ Ueda Speech

• Tuesday: Producer Price Index (PPI)

• Wednesday: Beige Book

• Thursday: Claims

• Friday: n/a

Earnings-wise >$500bn market cap

• JP Morgan (Tuesday)

• J&J (Tuesday)

Geopolitical Update - The Latest Details That Matter

• The U.S. “Impartial Blockade” of Iranian Ports Following the collapse of 21-hour ceasefire talks in Pakistan, President Trump has ordered the U.S. Navy to begin a total naval blockade of all ships entering or leaving Iranian ports. CENTCOM confirmed the enforcement will begin on Monday, April 13, at 14:00 GMT. Crucially, the blockade targets vessels that have “paid an illegal toll to Iran,” marking a direct challenge to the IRGC’s $2 million-per-ship protection plan. It remains unknown if US assets are in the Strait to actually clear mines, though our best sources say that is not a process that was started (and/or) completed).

• Strait of Hormuz: The “Controlled System” Fails The Strait remains under “smart management” by the IRGC, effectively closed to all but “Iranian-approved” vessels. As of April 12, only one commercial vessel successfully transited without Iranian coordination by skirting the southern edge of the hazardous area. While the 10–15 ship window was intended to drain floating storage, HFI Research and Johnston indicate that the corridor has not returned to normal commercial routing. 13.5 MBPD remains effectively offline as Gulf producers (Saudi, Iraq, UAE) await predictable, un-tolled access.

• Red Sea Escalation: The Bab el-Mandeb Threat with the Islamabad talks failing, Iran has signaled a potential “horizontal escalation” by instructing Houthi allies to shutter the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This effectively weaponizes both major maritime chokepoints simultaneously. Major carriers (Maersk, CMA CGM) have moved back to “Red Alert,” canceling planned returns to the Suez Canal and rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope. This diversion is absorbing approximately 2.5 million TEU of global capacity, ensuring that freight rates remain decoupled from historic norms through Q4 2026.

The latest table below highlights the continuing impairment - even with offsets from the Saudi East West Pipeline, Iran’s Northbound pipeline to China, & more…

Not yet a MacroEdge Ozone subscriber? Get access to Ozone:

Subscribe now

Read more

Good Saturday evening MacroEdge Readers and Community,

This will be a concise update given the latest updates on the geopolitical front - and due to the fact that I expect things to remain fluid over the next 24 hours and beyond. The big news of the evening (obviously), which we broke through the @MacroEdgeRes account, was the fact that the Iranian delegation rejected multiple offers from the US delegation in Pakistan to find peace. While there is no news on the ceasefire to this point, the IDF may make some moves here over the next few days, and things could once again move quickly in the wrong direction as both delegations make their way back to their respective countries. On the Iran front, it appears that they have no interest in ceding any control over the Strait of Hormuz back to any other GCC country, and this continues to be their ‘nuclear option’ that few experts expected they would actually utilize in any conflict. Obviously, they still retain the real nuclear option through their proxies to close the Red Sea, though I do not expect that we will see that utilized for the time being, given that it would get more nations involved in the conflict directly. Right now, we’re still on an accelerated timeline for the energy shock (and physical shortages) to begin hitting East Asia this week, and Europe the following, especially with jet fuel and distillates, as the last tanker from the Middle East arrives there this week.

Not yet an Ozone subscriber? Upgrade below to get all of our research, data, portfolio strategy, commentary, and much more from the MacroEdge Team…

Subscribe now

Strait crossings remain near zero, and just a few tankers have made the crossing since the ceasefire began. The measure now appears more of a buy time deal for both sides to reload up on the munitions front, barring any progress in talks here now over the next 24 hours… the further we get away from the time of the meetings that just occurred, the more likely we are to see the conflict flare up again, and go ‘hot’. This is a huge deal, and contrary to what some faux experts on X claim as this being something like 5 days of supply impacted in total, the aggregate shortage in the physical markets continues to build as the 13mbpd in production offline compounds daily. Even with VLCCs rushing to the Gulf Coast to get product to East Asian and European markets, this will only serve as a band-aid, the longer the Strait remains closed. Before jumping to any conclusion, or jumping the gun, we’ll let the next day play out and see how things progress into the futures open in the US before diving into the Weekly Macro Note.

Subscribe now

We continue to live in unprecedented times day after day, and even in the face of this tumult, it’s our job to continue to see through the clouds and deliver intelligent strategies to you all.

Setting the Schedule for the ‘On the Ground’ Series

Given the popularity of our energy sector and data center reports in February and March, which both incorporated a significant amount of anecdotal information collected on the ground, we’re going to expand our ‘on the ground’ data and research with this new series.

• Agriculture: A Deep ‘On The Ground’ Dive Into Wheat and Corn - May 2025

• Data Center - The New Shale Series - May 2025 and on

• Energy Pt. 2 - An Update from the Permian and Bakken - May 2025

• Aviation - America’s Favorite Public Utility - June 2025

Over the next week, we will publish the exact dates for each report, and a calendar will be discoverable through a new link on the club.macroedge.world - so stay tuned for the May and June dates.

Given the speed of news, market data, and price action of late, I don’t want to chain all of our coverage down to slower processes and methodologies, which are all designed with profiting from a portfolio strategy or basket as an absolute #1 priority. The above is designed to be a starting point for us being early to trends, and then follow-up on them as we capture the opportunity (ie: energy), which is really part 3 of the series since it will mark our third visit to the Permian in the last few months.

Energy Portfolio Basket Update & Deep Dive

Read more

Good Friday evening MacroEdge Readers and Community,

It’s still evening on PST as I write the latest Redeye Macro Note, and we’re going to cover a brief update on the CPI report from this morning, as well as look at the latest UMich Consumer Sentiment data, which dipped to another all-time low under the current Administration. We continue to reside in very bizarre economic times - where we’re watching the devolution of the 80% back into a pre-1950s economy as things like the chance of a retirement evaporate, while the asset class continues to benefit from nominal asset appreciation. Today’s inflation report is further evidence of what we have been calling out for months in that the *deflationistas* are grasping for straws and seeking out a ghost of deflation that simply does not exist in the current macro backdrop. Each and every single Administration does all it can to keep nominal inflation up and to the right - and this one has certainly been no different. While Y/Y inflation has decelerated, with the Strait of Hormuz still closed (which we’ll talk about below), we’re going to start seeing broader impacts next week in East Asia and the following in Europe with things like fuel supply, fertilizer supply, and more.

Another *new record*... just not one to be proud of:

UMich sentiment printed its lowest level on record this morning, and this reflects the difficult economic environment for the non-asset class. While initially, some thought this was flawed survey methodology that was reflecting response bias, the economic backdrop is not supportive for voters (especially independents) to come out in support of whatever is left of the ‘MAGA’ mandate come November. There will be pockets here or there, but the political dynamic is shifting, yet again, to a more fractured nature - and I think that will be the case until at least the next Presidential election.

Subscribe now

The Macro Club and MacroEdge Portfolio Strategy

Next week, in the Midweek Macro Note, we will open applications for The Macro Club from mid-April until the end of June. Beyond that period, we will assess where we’re at and go from there.

Complete an interest form below, and a member of our team will get in touch within the next 2-3 days:

The Macro Club - Interest Form

At the end of April, a core offering from our Macro Research team will be available as ‘MacroEdge Portfolio Strategy’. This offering is incorporated into all Economic Advisory engagements, but also will become available as a standalone offering that now has its own Substack. Stay tuned for more on Portfolio Strategy from MacroEdge, and how to access it, in tomorrow’s Saturday Macro Note.

Breaking down the CPI Report and UMich Data

CPI Headline Surge: The Headline CPI for March rose by 0.9% month-over-month, pushing the annual rate to 3.3%. This spike was driven almost entirely by energy and transportation costs, reflecting the immediate impact of WTI Crude maintaining levels above $90/bbl due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade.

Core CPI Stickiness: Core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased by 0.2% month-over-month, lower than the 0.3% expected.

PCE Price Index: The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report—the Fed’s preferred metric—showed a .4% m/m reading.

Philly Fed Prices Paid v CPI:

Gas prices saw their largest monthly jump on record - and consumers have seen prices up about 50% at the pump, a true shock:

Strait of Hormuz Update & Geopolitical Note

• Near-Zero Tanker Traffic: Since the ceasefire took effect, only 3 non-Iranian oil and chemical tankers have successfully crossed the Strait as of late April 9. This is a large drop from the pre-war average of over 120 daily crossings.

(continued below in the Redeye Macro Note: Strait of Hormuz Update (continued), Energy Portfolio Basket Update, Saturday Macro Note Preview):

Read more

Good Thursday evening MacroEdge Readers and Community,

It’s great to be back for another Midweek Macro Note - as we continue to accelerate progress with MacroEdge this year - there are so many positive things on the horizon - such as our new ‘On the Ground’ report series that we will cover below. As we continue to navigate a very interesting and fast-moving start to the year, we are continuing to progress with our vision through Macro Research, Transform, & our Media/Partnerships division.

For some reason on the equity market front - and I still haven’t figured out the exact *why* (I have many speculations - there remains a relentless passive bid behind everything - and most notably the lowest quality garbage with zero profit moat into the next year, 10 years, 50 years - whatever timeline you want to look at it with. While the exact reason may never be known, the brief war dip barely shook retail investors from these positions, overall leverage exposure is still barely off of the highs, and the macro picture is now in the rear seat with momentum and oil assuming the first position for now. As discussed in the brief energy note - oil prices recovered today - with US spot crude around $99/bbl at the time of this writing. There still needs to be some stabilization from a price standpoint, but as long as the channel remains intact from a technical standpoint, that will be quite positive structurally for higher price levels.

In the AI & data center investment sphere - those equities continue to push higher… The people selling the investments don’t seem to care at all about the technologies and investments they’re selling as long as they keep selling. The vision there is key - and below - in the ‘On the Ground’ breakdown - we’re going to talk about why we’re initiating coverage on the data center space, which remains one of the last few economic drivers in the current economy as cyclicals continue to struggle.

In the overall equity overview - the question I’ve posed to readers and our community-at-large - is whether or not the price action we’re seeing represents our *Zimbabwe moment*... or Venezuela/Argentinian style markets globally - where the new norm is just a permanent crash up in nominal terms as more and more is fired into the system year after year. Obviously - as has been discussed for years - this is completely untenable in the long-run given things like the long-run, demographic outlook for countries like the United States (and places that are in much worse shape like Europe and East Asia) - it’s always a question of how long the insanity and nominal euphoria can continue. For the time being, the key barometers to observe remain things like our ‘Global Bubble Gauge’ basket below - and we continue to seek out opportunities that aren’t in the headlines by being first to the party. Chasing with crowds is rarely a philosophy I endorse - and with so little understanding and so much hype continuing.

Table of Contents for this Midweek Macro Note:

• On the Ground Report Series - Arriving in May

• The Macro Club - Applications Open Soon

• Back to the Bubble - A Look at Japan, the AI Trade, & More - Is This Project Zimbabwe… or South Africa?

• An Update on the Real Estate Situation

• Performance Comes First - Energy Update

• Report Schedule for The Weekend

Tomorrow - keep an eye on the CPI report - the consensus for warm to hot - and this will directionally impact the 10Y and rate decisions from the June and on timeframe.

The Philly Fed Prices Paid indicator for March came in warmer than expected (and PCE was also hot today):

Subscribe now

‘On the Ground’ Report Series - Arriving in May

Given the popularity of our energy sector and data center reports in February and March, which both incorporated a significant amount of anecdotal information collected on the ground, we’re going to expand our ‘on the ground’ data and research with this new series.

• Agriculture: A Deep ‘On The Ground’ Dive Into Wheat and Corn - May 2025

• Data Center - The New Shale Series - May 2025 and on

• Energy Pt. 2 - An Update from the Permian and Bakken - May 2025

• Aviation - America’s Favorite Public Utility - June 2025

Given the speed of news, market data, and price action of late, I don’t want to chain all of our coverage down to slower processes and methodologies, which are all designed with profiting from a portfolio strategy or basket as an absolute #1 priority. The above is designed to be a starting point for us being early to trends, and then follow-up on them as we capture the opportunity (ie: energy), which is really part 3 of the series since it will mark our third visit to the Permian in the last few months.

The Macro Club - Applications Open Soon

As part of our community building efforts, we’re going to be expanding our community internally and migrating community features to ‘The Macro Club’ come late June 2026. While Substack will continue to serve as our primary email distribution place, it lacks the community engagement and professional feel that we’ve been desiring as an organization over the past year, since this was first conceptualized. There was no happy medium between the abandoned X communities feature, which they’ve almost killed off, and the Substack community features, which are isolating for individual users, as they make it difficult to actually connect with other users within our community internally.

The Macro Club will serve as our private community for serious investors, money managers and financial professionals, financial authors on platforms like Substack, and business executives.

Submit an interest form through the button below:

https://club.macroedge.world/tmcinterest

Back to the Bubble - A Look at Japan, the AI Trade, & More - Is This Project Zimbabwe?

The price action over the last week is a rapid return to pre-war mania, in fact, it’s more reminiscent of April and May 2025 price action, where traders, CTAs, banks, and retail all piled in at once to push things higher.

The Japan/US AI trade continues a shocking correlation as it continues to advance higher, and the BoJ’s policy of being too loose with a weakening Yen has spurred a continuing melt-up in a select few Japanese equities. It’s even more egregious in markets like Korea (which we also highlight below).

In line chart format:

The question now remains whether we finally see a higher low to see these markets break lower, or if this is just another staircase to new highs from here.

My thoughts: what a stupid market this has become:

Korea continues to push higher relentlessly:

(Continued below: Back to the Bubble (cont.), An Update on the Real Estate Situation, Performance Comes First - Energy Update, Portfolio Strategy Note and Commentary from Six)…

Not yet a MacroEdge subscriber? Upgrade below and get access to all of our research, data, reports, and much more →

Subscribe now

Read more

Good Tuesday evening MacroEdge Readers & Community,

As promised on Sunday evening, we are delivering the War Note this evening to cover the latest developments in the Israel-Iran conflict today, of which there were many. Markets started the day with US spot crude oil surpassing $118/bbl and Brent (dated) at $144 - an all-time high - while diesel made it within cents of its last all-time high from the 2022 inflation wave driven by the Russian-Ukraine war and shut-ins. Why the abrupt end at this deadline? It had little to do with the fact that this was actually the ‘hard deadline’ and more to do with energy prices nearing & hitting all-time highs. Odds are that China finally stepped in, and now we’re left with an extremely fragile two-week ceasefire, and in the interim, Iran & Oman are overseeing the Strait with a toll of $1-2mm per boat passing through the Strait. If traffic returned the Strait to pre-war levels, which is unlikely for at least the rest of the month, that would be tens of billions in new revenue for Iran & the IRGC. Given all of the noise - the goal this evening is to just cut to the chase on what we know is real: here and now, and digest the critical details so that we can find and position intelligently as we either move beyond this period and digest the energy shock over the next 6 months, or fall back into it and deal with the consequences of that - too.

Due to the distraction, it’s pulled us away from really looking at the broader macro situation in the United States - and even though oil prices are down substantially now from the highs of the day (spot $96.50 at the time of this writing) - it’s going to likely be 6-12 months to see things normalize to a degree on the supply front. Shutting off and shutting-in 13mbpd on the supply front in GCC countries won’t just be turned back overnight, and the SPR release is still just making a dent in the overall outages. In the Midweek Macro Note - we will break down traffic in the Strait to see if things improve meaningfully over the next 2 days - and given the backlog of boats, we likely see the overall number of boats passing through rising to about 20-30 on the tanker front at least for the next couple of days.

A notable exception to the ceasefire agreement is Lebanon, which was omitted from the deal, and where we still see Hezbollah & IDF forces going back and forth. Likely no change there. Below, we’ll break down the actual reality of what happened today - in ‘seeing through the record noise’, look at the shifting Strait of Hormuz dynamics, highlight the changing world orders, discuss what will happen to oil prices in the coming days and months, highlight a brief energy portfolio strategy update, and look ahead to the Midweek Macro Note.

If you’re not yet upgraded to MacroEdge Ozone, do so below, and get all of our research, data, portfolio strategy, and more. This week marked the first time we landed on the Top #100 rising in finance profiles on Substack for three days in a row, and I (and the entire MacroEdge Team) thank you for your support.

Upgrade to Ozone

A few notable posts from late February to early March from my feed were being surfaced by community members in the afternoon:

And from early March:

Subscribe now

Seeing Through the Record Noise

Whether or not this remains the last ‘War Note’ remains to be seen - both sides will actually begin negotiations on 4/10 - and after the final salvo of attacks from both sides (which are likely complete for the time being), we will see how the negotiations progress. After the last 40 or so days, I am quite confident that we are seeing power shift away from traditional hegemons and toward asymmetric power dynamics… we saw that with Iran, and we’re still seeing it in Ukraine. The days of conventional warfare and naval superpowers still matter - but with $30,000 drones that a nation can produce in the hundreds per week, power and defense can be projected in very non-traditional ways to keep the other side on their feet. The element of economic warfare, as well, given Iran’s status as a major oil exporter, has cemented its ability to use the Strait as an economic tool in the future. While the Strait was thought to be a tool during the 12-day war last year, few thought that Iran actually had the ability to control its flow for ~40 days. $118/bbl.

Something we learned over the past month is the massive interventions governments are willing to embark on now to intervene in markets (even with tiny moves) - the US Administration returned to its April 2025 style market interventions - in both energy and equity markets - and even foreign governments got involved in the action. In the ‘fog of war’ fake news dominated news feeds across social media - and pages like ‘FirstSquawk, FinancialJuice, The K-Letter, and other random no-name journalists’ became the leaders in reposting ‘sources’ in all caps clickbait-style posts. The shifting news dynamic has made it hard in a world where new news appears by the minute - to actually stay on top of the situation - and that makes what we do even more relevant… the minute by minute shouldn’t actually matter that much, but right now it does - in a market obsessed with the ‘minutes’.

A Changing World and Shifting Strait of Hormuz Dynamics

As of April 7, Iran’s Foreign Ministry has announced a provisional two-week “safe passage” window for the Strait of Hormuz. While headlines suggest a reopening, the proposed terms represent a military-controlled channel with extreme friction, not yet a functional return to global energy markets…

INTERIM TERMS (APRIL 8 – APRIL 22) Under current negotiations for a potential ceasefire, any transit is subject to the following constraints:

• Vessel Cap: A maximum of 10–15 ships total permitted over the entire 14-day window.

• IRGC Oversight: Mandatory coordination with the IRGC Navy, subject to “technical limitations” and toll payments.

• Political Reciprocity: Potential release of frozen Iranian assets by the U.S.

• Terminal Openness: Analysts (Johnston) indicate the Strait will likely never return to pre-war openness. Post-conflict volume is described as a “crack in the door” at best.

SUPPLY DYNAMICS & THE 13 MMbpd DEFICIT Field analysis from Johnston and HFI Research confirms that diplomatic rhetoric will not yet translate into physical flow:

• Net Supply Loss: Approximately 13 MMbpd remains shut-in. Existing bypasses, including the Saudi East-West pipeline, the UAE Fujairah bypass, and Iraq’s Kirkuk pipeline, provide only marginal offsets.

• Inventory Buffers: Temporary stock draws (IEA SPR releases and oil-on-water) are accounting maneuvers that do not address the core production shut-in across Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Kuwait.

• Normalization Lag: A full operational restart requires 6–8 weeks to drain onshore storage and cycle empty tankers through the corridor. A ceasefire in April will not resolve the global supply deficit until at least June.

How We Can Verify It

• Visual Confirmation: MarineTraffic and HFI Research SAR data show near-zero tanker movement through the Strait over the last 48 hours.

• The AIS Test: If genuine transits begin, vessels will utilize AIS transponders. Watch daily tanker counts, specifically starting April 9. Until physical hulls move, all political statements are noise.

(Continued below: A Changing World and Shifting Strait Dynamics, Details of Iran’s 10 Point Plan, What Will Happen to Oil Prices? Energy Portfolio Strategy Update, A Look to the Midweek Macro Note, & More)…

Subscribe now

Read more

Good Sunday evening MacroEdge Readers & Community,

It’s been an incredible few days in southwest Utah - and it looks like that will continue this week. I spent two days getting in all the hikes I could - and did about 16 miles yesterday and about 12 today. The views & people are both spectacular, and I highly suggest a visit here for those that can make it to this part of the country, there’s really no place like it in the world.

This evening we have tepid futures open (thus far), though I don’t think it matters now until we get past Tuesday evening and the next Trump deadline. The creative ‘tee-ups’ for deadlines further out in the future signal, in my opinion, that we’re unlikely to really see Trump follow through on that particular escalation - in this case, being an expansion of infrastructure (energy and bridge attacks), given what the response would be. If we do see them carried out, that would be a signal to energy markets in particular that prices on the front-end are again too low, and they would be repriced higher.

Generally, it seems like we’re already starting to see some headline fatigue from market participants, which is the absolute goal of the ‘flood the zone’ news releases, where one can’t really discern what is happening. In terms of war developments over the last 24 hours - or from our Saturday Macro Note - there hasn’t been much in the way of any dramatic changes, and I expect the President to remain largely quiet now until that new Tuesday evening deadline. Tomorrow we’ll also have a press conference on the war - but I expect the announcement to remain largely concentrated on the rescue operation that took place over the weekend. It doesn’t seem like right now $112/bbl spot US crude is enough reason to take markets lower - and a key reason for that in my eyes is a retest of that key 200dma (which we highlight again below).

On the data front - outside of the war and geopolitical updates - this is quite a quiet week, and I expect that we see continued moves to push paper oil prices lower through announcements, the ‘TACO’ publications, and more. What’s very interesting at this point in the price shock is that it really doesn’t seem like the median consumer is particularly bothered by it yet, though impacts on the physical supply front are going to get a lot more precarious 8-12 days in Europe, and the following week in the United States. For the March CPI reading, that is not likely to capture much of the energy surge we’ve seen yet, though come April and May - as highlighted last night - it will trickle into things like food prices, and everything else in the economy that is reliant on petroleum products in any way, shape, or form.

The market right now is operating with intense recency bias and an overall mood of ‘coping’ from the 6-8 months of sideways action across the indices, so I think turning on those filters for the lineup of CNBC guests that will be coming on this week, one after the other, is probably warranted. Another key development that I expect to see in the coming week is a pivot to an ‘attack during open markets’ strategy from Iran, as their politicians have frequently taken note of how quickly it warrants a response from Trump. Whether or not that remains feasible remains to be seen, but the latest estimates still highlight the IRGC having access to over 1,000 IRBMs and plenty of drones to match. There’s so much more I want to discuss from a shifting global power dynamics perspective as well, with how enormous the Strait of Hormuz situation has been on those shifts - but that is something that I will save for a rant in the Redeye Macro Note at the end of the week, as I head back to Phoenix for a few days.

The schedule at the bottom of the Weekly Macro Note includes everything we’ll be covering this week across the next 4 reports, and in 2 of them we’ll also highlight The Macro Club and how to get involved there as we use the next two months to set up the foundation for it.

If you’re not yet an Ozone subscriber - get in our Ozone network below by subscribing to our Substack - and get all of our research, data, portfolio strategy, and so much more below:

Upgrade to Ozone

The ‘short-term’ chart of the evening, a positive technical setup is once again developing on spot crude:

The Macro Week Ahead

Some exchanges are closed tomorrow for Easter Monday.

• Monday: ISM Services PMI

• Tuesday: RBNZ Interest Rate Decision, Fed Speaker Goolsbee

• Wednesday: FOMC Minutes, EIA Inventory Data

• Thursday: Delta Airlines Earnings (important macro bellwether for aviation)

• Friday: CPI, UMich Prelim Sentiment, and Prices Readings

The Masters Golf Tournament will take place towards the end of the week, which is another reason for volume to trickle off as the week winds down.

The 200DMA Magnet

In any distributive environment that breaks lower, we historically see a retest of a range around the 200sma point from the initial breakdown. In this case, we have not seen that rebound yet, though it is looking likely that it will be tested at some point in the next couple of days - assuming that something major doesn’t come along in the next 48 hours. The market is programmed to look for reasons to go higher right now, so anything that can be taken as positive news will be right now.

This very short-term uptrend (on the 4hr) has taken the Nasdaq higher over the last few sessions, and is continuing overnight with about a .4% gain on NQ. I would take anything with a grain of salt until the President provides the next updates to action in Iran, given the situation with the Strait of Hormuz.

It might seem bizarre that investors are just eagerly awaiting to rush back into unprofitable tech garbage and AI names - but the recency bias from the 2024 and 2025 gains remains very strong, and adoption of those technologies continues, even though that adoption has been priced into names like Nvidia.

Latest Israel-Iran Developments

There is so much noise and fake news going around right now that it’s hard to even filter or discern out what’s real and what’s not. The more noise we see, the more confident I get that there is concern about what’s going on in the broader macro picture, in things like private credit, and what will happen as a result of the energy shock. The key difference in the economy is now that there isn’t a printer turned on (at least yet), and most households are completely unprepared for an additional wave of higher prices, and another bout of job cuts as they happen.

Subscribe now

(Continued below (latest Israel-Iran developments, energy strategy, the impact of the jet fuel shock on airlines, what’s ahead this week, and portfolio strategy update & commentary from Six)…

Upgrade to Ozone for access to all of our research, data, reports, and much more.

Read more

In this brief Saturday Macro Note, we’re going to take a look at the latest in the employment data, with the March employment release now fully behind us. Interestingly enough, the report came on a day where markets were closed and only had a brief chance to react to the report. The report was mixed at best and mostly soft across the board. As highlighted in a post I made on X (and have made the same post many times in the last several years), the bulk of net workforce growth is all coming from foreign born labor which is the demographic reality of our domestic labor market being as old as it is. The report will likely see substantial revisions over the next 2 months, and February saw significant negative revisions (yet another month following a pattern of huge revisions).

We will also briefly highlight the latest war updates of the day below - of which there have been several - discuss and analyze the oil and food price relationship - which is a key input and indicator of higher inflation from an energy price shock - highlight the latest crypto updates for the major coins like Bitcoin and the overall space, and lastly preview what we’re going to cover tomorrow.

Not yet a MacroEdge Ozone subscriber? Upgrade below and get all of the latest MacroEdge data, research, strategy, reports & much more. Stay tuned for updates to all things from our Macro Research in the coming weeks and months as we roll out things like The Macro Club & more.

Upgrade to Ozone

War Updates for the Day

• US forces extracted a second F-15 pilot from Iran - the aircraft was shot down over SW Iran - the IRGC likely held off on mobilization to avoid catastrophe in a remote area, and skirmishes were limited.

• Infrastructure attacks on both sides accelerated today - with Israel & US airstrikes targeting Iranian oil and energy infrastructure and Iran missile and drone attacks focusing on oil and military infrastructure across the GCC.

• Iran appears to be shifting to a more targeted approach in strikes, which may signal some missile rationing, though officials still place their inventories in the ~1,500 or so range.

• Trump posted another 48-hour ultimatum for Iran on a potential ceasefire, promising hell if they did not comply.

• The energy crisis continues to tick closer by the day to the complete oblivious nature of most - and we’re now on a 2-week clock for Europe before impacts become much more significant there, and about 3-weeks for the United States for specific diesels and jet fuels.

March Employment Report - Another Screwball

The March employment report was another mixed batch - federal government employment continued to contract (which I expect to end its contraction in the second half of the year) - this is the smallest federal workforce we’ve seen since the 60s (at about 2.65mm, down from the 3+ million peak under Biden).

Continued below: (March Employment Report Recap, A Look at the Oil & Food Price Relationship, An Update on Crypto, a Preview of the Weekly Macro Note)… & more

Subscribe now

Read more

Good Friday evening and happy Easter weekend to our MacroEdge readers & community,

I hope you have had a fruitful week. I am back to Mountain Time for the next few days - speaking on regional airline dynamics amidst this energy shock that still hasn’t really made its way to North America. Elsewhere in the world, and in the global south, that will be a different story - but for the time being, the US still has another 3-8 weeks or so of some ‘normalcy’ before more folks start to see impacts of the Strait of Hormuz closure & global production outages to the tune of 10+mbpd. While domestic production mitigates some of those issues, if we progress toward a broader ground conflict and infrastructure is destroyed at an accelerated pace, we may be looking at many years before oil production can recover the pre-conflict levels. Every hour that ticks by now seems to be a step towards this broader conflict that I think is on our doorstep, and we’re taking seriously our information role in getting accurate and reliable data out to our community right now on a 24/7 basis.

We wound down the early week yesterday with a bizarre market day as energy markets globally - led by oil prices - surged higher, while equity markets staged a sharp bounce after a partial headline flooded the airwaves and ‘X’waves. The conflict seems to be evolving toward a ‘war’ - with huge resource movement now occurring via airlift from the United States towards Europe and the Middle East. The war also escalated today on the aviation front - with multiple US aircraft downed - and a pilot still missing. Multiple F-15s, an A-10, an F-16, and several helicopters were hit during operations today, highlighting a significant escalation in air defense on the side of the Iranians. Some of it was likely feeling out what air defense looked like in certain Iranian regions, and I do expect that if we do not see some sort of ceasefire by the end of next week, we will progress to a boots-on-the-ground style conflict, which as discussed below, is almost guaranteed to be lengthy. As highlighted by our fantastic guest, Rory Johnston (founder of CommodityContext.com) tonight, the risks for the entire global economy right now are completely understated. We’re in an extremely vulnerable place worldwide, and global south countries are at risk of civil unrest and even uprisings the longer the conflict continues. That’s before assessing what things like a closure of Red Sea navigation by the Houthis could do.

Not yet an Ozone subscriber? Transform your insights with our data, research, strategy and much more…

Subscribe now

In addition to all of the geopolitical volatility, that’s feeding into domestic cost increases now, with airlines like United announcing new baggage fees to offset the surging fuel costs. The fuel cost spikes alone are enough to completely wipe out profit margins for the airlines, and that’s going to start reflecting in the late Q2 earnings now.

As the offramp window to avoid broader conflict continues to narrow - especially on the back of Iran rejecting any peace talks in Pakistan (announced earlier today) - we’re going to be staying on top of our strategy, releases, and reports to keep our community informed in how we can best prepare and tackle a complex global situation that is changing by the minute. I noted to our team a few nights ago that there have been several instances now where an entire report has been assembled, and then we’ve had to go back and redo entire segments, or add as we go - especially while markets are open - because things continue to evolve so quickly. It’s not looking like we’re going to see an off-ramp - but the outcome of either decision is something that we need to be prepared for.

If you missed a fantastic MacroEdge Radio #73 with JustDario - an expert on the AI and data infrastructure space and so much more - please find it below:

We are posting all of the latest.

The Macro Club - The Latest

As highlighted in the update from a week ago, I am very pleased to begin rolling out The Macro Club come late June. This is going to act as our own community-based ‘Citadel’ for intelligence, discussions, strategy, and more - and through this community, we’re going to have the ability to foster relationships through both virtual and in-person interactions, and create something that is missing today in our virtual world. I am also very excited by this new offering from our Macro Research team, and it’s part of our continued 2026 vision to create things that will continue to put us at the forefront of our industry and space, which still operates in the dark ages by-and-large. We have the unique opportunity to build a more specialized community from our fantastic community that continues to grow by the day, and there’s going to be many important things that come on The Macro Club in the months to come.

If you would like to join our exclusive social and professional community, please complete the application via the button below, and a member of our team will contact you within 24-48 hours:

The Macro Club - Interest Form

We will start working through conversations with prospective members in the coming weeks, and are aiming for a first community of 150-200 people as ‘founding members’.

Stay tuned for more here.

A Realistic Look at Iran

As highlighted in an X post I made earlier this evening, I’ve spent the last several weeks talking to some of the brightest war experts and historians who generously lent some time on getting their thoughts on what an actual broader conflict would be like. The overall assessment is that there really is no positive outcome in any situation. Nuclear or not, Iran has the capabilities and capacity to bring the global economy to a complete standstill - adding in its proxy capabilities - and still has a very capable military and hierarchy enabled by the IRGC. There have been many posts in recent days… going… ‘who is in charge?’ - but the general feedback that I received was that this is now by design, so that the fractured command structure as it is does not get completely wiped out.

Topographically speaking, experts to me noted that Iran is a natural fortress, and completely unique in the fact that a traditional ground invasion is almost impossible in just massing forces and going in. We’re first likely to see limited ‘test’ operations - and that was likely some of what we saw today in assessing what Iranian air defense was capable of during a broader ‘low flying’ scenario of moving in troops and other ground resources.

[Continued below: Strait of Hormuz Status and Global Energy Crisis - Domestic Cost Increases, Energy and Portfolio Strategy Updates, Quarter End Note from John)…

Subscribe now

Read more

Good Sunday evening MacroEdge Readers & Community,

This evening we’ve seen little sign of any move towards a ceasefire or conflict de-escalation. We know that Iran was planning on responding to the list of 15 items by last Friday or today, and now it is Monday time in that part of the world. Attacks on infrastructure both ways continued through Sunday, and Iran may be shifting their strategy towards attacking during market hours as opposed to the ‘weekend wars’ we saw in 2025, where attacks only occurred outside of futures trading… We’re also noting that what we saw last year was nothing like the magnitude we’re seeing today in terms of an energy shock that’s still working its way through the pipeline.

Looking at futures right now (as of about 8pm ET) we’ve got the NQ down about 1%, and small caps leading the fall, the gap above is probably something that gets filled at some point on either a TACO or signs of progress toward a ceasefire, though that is looking less likely right now given everything we’ve seen this weekend. Iran hit a desalination water plant in Kuwait as retaliation, and critical infrastructure attacks could quickly spur higher energy prices as more risk gets priced into markets globally. This is the week we’ve highlighted that could be where we start to see fuel shortages hit the East Asian countries more broadly, and over the weekend - we’ve even seen countries like Ethiopia announce fuel rationing programs and a limitation of driving to only ‘essential workers’... whatever that term means, it gives me flashbacks to the early 2020 days, and I certainly am no fan of that. Because of the major implications on the energy markets, and the coverage we’ve provided on them for now over a month (going back to the third/fourth week of February, if you recall) - that and the war will continue to be the primary focus of our Macro Notes series for the time being - especially with oil prices in the driver’s seat of the global macro picture (and of equity markets, too).

[Update: Trump is posting on Truth Social as of 8:21 that Iran has given the US 20 large oil boats that will pass through the Strait of Hormuz - and the gap highlighted above was filled]... How’s that for high-frequency information…? It just keeps on coming nonstop.]

…turns out the news is false, it was the 20 Pakistani-flagged vessels, 2 per day for 10 days, old news:

This market is very unhealthy if it only bounces when there is a Truth Social.

As for the likelihood for a broader bounce in markets - since everyone is so obsessed with the high-frequency right now - that happens in almost every instance we see the indices move sharply lower than the 200dma. In this case, who knows what will spur that rally - it could be a number of things, like a short-term ceasefire if they really lose control of oil prices.

This evening we’ll be covering The Macro Club, and have an update on our rollout in a Wednesday evening update (going to be an incredible group), look at the employment week ahead, discuss a quick energy update on the latest data and prices - as well as strategy, look at the technicals in the major indices [Global Bubble Indices update in the Midweek], and discuss the 200dma ‘magnet’ that was highlighted above.

Subscribe now

The Macro Club

On Wednesday, we’ll have a full outline and overview of The Macro Club, which we are launching in late June 2026.

We’re building The Macro Club to eliminate the barrier of unified intelligence that exists in today’s financial services industry. By combining thought leaders in our community, the MacroEdge team, serious investors, money managers & financial professionals, financial authors on platforms like Substack, and business executives, we’re creating unified brainpower and a community around it.

In late June 2026, we will be introducing The Macro Club - a social and professional club designed to enhance the MacroEdge experience and build an intelligence community from the ground up. While Substack and X have been great building blocks, we’re looking to do something more in community building and build something that enables our readers and community members to build relationships with our professionals in the space and connect in a more streamlined way with members of our team. Think of it as an event (in-person and virtual), intelligence, data, portfolio strategy, discussion, and social hub all in one place - that’s The Macro Club.

The Macro Club - Interest Form

Why join The Macro Club?

The Macro Club - Interest Form

Membership by application only. All applicants will have a 10 to 15-minute phone call with a member of our team.

Employment Week Ahead

Job cuts tracked by MacroEdge are set to end the month of March over 100K - another elevated month driven by shedding in technology. I expect that cuts remain elevated with the war, and the oil/energy shock may lead to further layoffs as prices begin to accelerate.

Indeed Job Postings are also declining again, and serve as a leading indicator for JOLTS:

March was likely a soft month - especially toward the second half - and I think the price shock will likely have a major dampening effect on hiring in April data.

Quick Energy Update & Energy Portfolio Strategy Update

This week, we will likely be doing some re-torquing of the energy portfolio. With WTI as high as it is, we want to reduce hedge drag by as much as possible in the strategy, and that will mean a few updates… We are looking to focus on Permian & Bakken pureplay exposure - as they should benefit greatly from this crisis - and the core names in our basket are already very strong (ie: HPK). Natural gas exposure may benefit from the Strait closure as well, with E&P names that operate in that space…

With no changes made yet, with it still being the Sunday evening hours, stay tuned for a special update on this front… As we shift into The Macro Club and Economic Advisory components for strategy updates and notes - that is where you will find them in the future (if you’re already an Ozone member, you will be grandfathered in…).

The technical structures for WTI continue to look very constructive for higher levels:

A Look at the Technicals

Monthly technicals are starting to break down on the technology sector (QQQ):

(continued below: ‘A Look at the Technicals’, the 200DMA magnet, coverage schedule this week, portfolio strategy update & commentary - Six)

Subscribe now

Read more